It seems as if the Bahrain economic conference, which a delegation from Israel openly took part in, failed to impress from the get-go. The Palestinian boycott and the lack of senior representatives from the Gulf states dialed down expectations for a breakthrough. Nevertheless, the conference doesn't reflect everything. Something positive is taking place in the Middle East: for the past two decades, Israel has not been considered totally off-limits by the Arab world.
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It started with a trickle of businesspeople who held dual citizenship going to Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the early 2000s, Israeli experts teaching courses in Qatar, and Professor Ron Rubin setting up a satellite campus of New York University in Abu Dhabi. Then former Israeli Energy Minister Uzi Landau paid a visit to the Gulf in 2010, and various Israeli athletic delegations took part in events under the radar of the Dubai media. An Israeli business center survived the Mabhouh affair and an Israeli business lobby was launched in Saudi Arabia. Now after we've come so far – despite the ups and down – the official relations between Israel and the Gulf states have hit a new peak: Mossad head Yossi Cohen announced that Israel would be opening a diplomatic office in Oman. Israel is openly heading toward formal relations with the Gulf, and the big question is, will all sides manage to maintain these ties despite the shadow cast by the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
Thus far, each of the Gulf states has felt the tremors of the Arab Spring in its own way. Saudi Arabia is still up to its neck in internal conflicts and the war in Yemen, and for the first time is experiencing real security threats that are affecting the other members of the Saudi-led coalition, mostly in the unprecedented rift between the Saudis and Qatar and Iran. Sharjah and Dubai find themselves helpless in the face of embarrassing incidents: the death of United Arab Emirates Crown Prince Khalid al-Qasimi at a drug party in London, and Princess Haya, the wife of UAE Prime Minister Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, running away to London earlier this month, after his daughter, Latifa, ran away last year. The quiet sultanate Oman is being swept up in the affair of the oil tanker attacks. The upheavals of the past decade caused the ruling powers in many Muslim and Arab states to become aware that Israel is no longer the Zionist enemy that threatens to destroy the Arab world, but rather an oasis of calm in the Middle East. The recognition of Israel as a partner in their defense and economic fates is a key event.
Recently, some of the cooperative ventures between Israel and a number of Gulf states have come to light, especially the diplomatic breakthroughs of Culture Minister Miri Regev and former Labor party leader Avi Gabbay visiting Abu Dhabi; Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mossad head Yossi Cohen going to Oman; and former MK Tzipi Livni arriving in Bahrain. These visits are just a taste of what is to come and what is already being planned.
Plenty of senior Gulf officials see Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as an outstanding diplomat even if he is controversial, while the Palestinians are losing status, mostly because of the split in the PLO and the fact that the vast sums of money Gulf states have sent the Palestinian people are being wasted on illicit gifts for PA officials and terrorism. Israel has to keep taking calculated steps toward the Gulf states, especially the members of the Saudi-led coalition. The current situation seems promising, but it is delicate, especially because the ties between the various sides rest on shared defense and security interests. The fact that there are currently no moves being made in conjunction with the Palestinians is an obstacle. The Gulf states are in a less comfortable position on that score, but despite Israel's satisfaction and optimism, we should be careful.
