Although Benjamin Netanyahu has become Israel's longest-serving prime minister, projections suggest that Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman will bring about Netanyahu's political demise.
If Lieberman's anti-haredi positions gain him additional Knesset seats, he will continue to hold the balance of power. His role is strengthened with polls predicting another deadlock with neither Netanyahu nor Blue and White leader Benny Gantz able to cobble together a government.
On top of that, if Netanyahu is indicted in any of the cases pending against him, parts of the Likud would likely oppose retaining him as party leader.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook and Twitter
Paradoxically, Netanyahu is currently at the peak of his achievements. He courageously overcame the confrontational Obama era with subsequent events totally vindicating him. He has expanded the US-Israel alliance to an all-time high while simultaneously developing an unprecedented positive relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin – despite his support of Syria. He has advanced relations with India and created relationships in South America, Africa and Asia including China. He has also developed covert and not-so-covert associations with the Saudis and moderate Sunni states. Israel today has better relations with the international community than at any time since its inception.
In addition, he can take much of the credit for Israel's booming economy and for the country being ranked as one of the world's most successful high-tech innovators. Under his leadership, the IDF has achieved new peaks and is capable of defeating any threat from Israel's adversaries.
But after Netanyahu's 13 years in office – extraordinary longevity for any elected leader – many Israelis seek a change. This attitude is exacerbated by a media that constantly demonizes him. His lavish lifestyle, while unlikely to be criminal, has intensified public opposition.
His kowtowing to haredi demands, particularly regarding draft exemptions, has created a backlash and apparently has diverted many voters to Lieberman's party. There are concerns that haredi demands will intensify beyond gender separation and obstacles to conversion. Even more critical has been the exclusion of all secular elements from their education, making graduates fit only for menial work. Their ever-expanding population will lead to dire consequences when the state cannot finance the welfare demands of those unable or unwilling to work.
To make matters worse, formerly moderate religious Zionism is now dominated by "national haredim," who, while fully supportive of national goals, ally themselves with extremists on questions of religious observance. Unless the merger with the New Right led by Ayelet Shaked can change the political environment, religious extremism is likely to intensify.
Netanyahu has also been accused of eliminating all potential rivals in Likud. Getting close to the prime minister is likened to a moth attracted to a flame. A striking example of his petty-mindedness was the decision to sack Shaked and Naftali Bennet from their cabinet positions and his efforts to destroy them.
Under the current circumstances, even if the Likud gains more seats than Blue and White and Netanyahu overcomes his legal problems, if none of the opposition parties or enough individual MKs can be seduced to join him, we could face an ongoing deadlock. Neither side may be able to obtain a majority, or Yisrael Beytenu could double its strength because of its anti-haredi stance.
The only solution is a national unity government with Netanyahu serving two years and then retiring as the premiership rotates to Gantz. But this will fail if Blue and White honors its pledge not to serve under Netanyahu.
If that happens, the president could task Gantz with forming a government. Likud would then have no alternative but to oblige Netanyahu to step down. And once he does, Likud under a new leader would negotiate a unity government with Blue and White – with or without Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid. This should pose no obstacles because Gantz shares the same basic security and defense policies as the current government.
Most Israelis would be relieved by such an outcome, which would help unite the nation and bring an end to haredi extortion. Such a merger would also demonstrate that Israel is not governed by the extreme Right.
There remains one problem: Can Gantz lead the country? Could he, like Netanyahu, successfully walk the diplomatic tightrope between Trump and Putin? So far, Gantz has displayed neither charisma nor strong leadership skills. A big question mark hangs over his ability to effectively lead the country over the next 12 months when critical decisions will need to be made.
And if not Gantz, who in either party does have the qualifications to lead?
Netanyahu does not endear himself to most Israelis. At the same time, polls show that most still today consider him the most competent candidate for prime minister. Paradoxically, there are many who detest him but would still opt for him to retain the reins of leadership over the coming crucial year.
So, while many are predicting that this is Netanyahu's last hurrah, they could be wrong. Today the odds are against him but on previous occasions, he used his extraordinary political skills and overcame what seemed to be hopeless situations. Don't write him off yet!
The writer's website can be viewed at www.wordfromjerusalem.com. He may be contacted at ileibler@leibler.com.
