As I warned from the beginning, the conflict in Sudan could join a long list of forgotten regional and international crises. There are elements that support this hypothesis, to no one's liking. First and foremost is the unrestrained nature of the parties to the conflict, dominated by the desire for revenge and the quest for a decisive military victory over the two generals, who seem to have no intention of desisting from their actions, at least in the foreseeable future.
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Yesterday's television reports of what happened at Khartoum International Airport were catastrophic in every respect. There were suggestions of deliberate destruction and sabotage by militants in this Arab country, confirming Sudan's slide into a phase of international isolation, God only knows for how long.
These crimes against civilian facilities such as airports, hospitals, schools, water points, and others are not the only evidence of the disaster that has befallen Sudan. The worst part has been confirmed, especially after the collapse of the ceasefire and the suspension of talks in Jeddah announced by the Saudi and American mediators, accusing both parties of not abiding by the ceasefire and obstructing relief and calming measures.
Despite the announcement by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the US that they will continue confidence-building efforts and seek negotiations, the warring parties themselves are the biggest losers in this round. They have lost the sympathy of most regional and international forces because they show that they do not care about their country and their people. Despite the human and material losses and the inability to make progress, they go on with their hostilities. The situation has turned into fighting for the sake of fighting, without realizing the consequences.
The Sudanese conflict is different from previous deadly conflicts and civil wars. Major cities like Khartoum and Omdurman are in turmoil and the entire state institutions are slipping towards an uncertain fate.
In my opinion, the gravest aspect of the Sudanese conflict is the tied hand of the international community. No state and no international/regional party has an effective solution to this crisis. The recent sanctions imposed by the US may not be an immediate bargaining chip, but rather an expression of anger. Sanctions take time to have an impact and their implementation is doubtful due to conflicting international interests, power struggles and external interventions.
In the meantime, regional and international institutions seem absent or unaware of the situation in Sudan. Efforts by the African Union and the International Contact Committee, which includes various organizations, have not been able to convince the conflicting parties of the proposed solutions. The UN focuses on emergency relief, humanitarian aid, and casualty assessment, important, but does not quite do justice to its role in such crises.
The commander of the Sudanese army, Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, recently threatened "lethal military force" if the "enemy" refused to come to its senses. This almost certainly implies the use of air and missile force in areas where Rapid Support Forces are stationed. As these forces are in populated residential areas, this could lead to human casualties and the destruction of entire towns, affecting those who refuse to evacuate or flee.
The perpetuation of the conflict in Sudan risks expanding the fighting scenario beyond the country's major cities. It could spread to other regions and neighboring countries, exacerbating existing insecurity and the causes of tension and conflict. This would lead to humanitarian crises and a wave of refugees, overwhelming the capacity of countries in the region to cope with such challenges.
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