As of April 2025, it seems that once again Naftali Bennett is emerging as the only one who can challenge Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership.
Polls show that if Bennett establishes a party under his leadership, it would be the largest in the Knesset and change the balance of power between the blocs – and if he doesn't enter the political system, Netanyahu's bloc is expected to receive 52 seats, compared to 57 for the anti-Netanyahu bloc (not including Arab parties that together receive 10 seats). Bennett's entry shuffles the deck.
Bennett's virtual party is expected to win 23 seats, compared to 22 for Netanyahu and Likud. In the inter-bloc balance, Netanyahu's bloc is expected to drop by three seats to just 49, giving the anti-Netanyahu bloc a majority of 61 seats together with Bennett.
However, these figures point to an interesting pattern that has repeated itself time and again in recent years, with Bennett portrayed as the great hope for those working to bring down Netanyahu's rule. History has twice proven that Bennett cannot maintain the position of governmental alternative to Netanyahu for long. Back in 2014, it briefly appeared that Bennett was gaining momentum after Operation Protective Edge, when The Jewish Home under his leadership was the second-largest party in polls. Bennett, who was perceived as the chief critic of Netanyahu's policy during the operation, received 16 seats in polls in September that year – four fewer than Likud. But ultimately, Netanyahu managed to drain Bennett's votes, with Likud winning 30 seats in the March 2015 elections, compared to only 8 for The Jewish Home.
Similarly, beginning in summer 2020, Bennett temporarily appeared as an alternative to Netanyahu's rule, against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising infection rates. In October 2020, Yamina, led by Bennett, received 23 seats in polls, three fewer than Likud. But in this case too, despite Bennett managing to significantly strengthen at Netanyahu's expense (Bennett climbed by 15 seats within four months, while Netanyahu dropped by 14 with the bloc balance remaining identical), Gideon Sa'ar's return to the political system and the establishment of his "New Hope" party hurt Bennett electorally, who ultimately led his Yamina party to a disappointing result of 7 seats in the 2021 elections, compared to Netanyahu and Likud who won 30 seats. Bennett, as mentioned, formed the government after the elections based on a controversial political deal with the anti-Netanyahu bloc, a move that essentially left him permanently outside the right-wing camp led by Netanyahu.
Unlike when Bennett relied on Netanyahu bloc voters, this time, support for him comes from anti-Netanyahu bloc voters. Bennett may receive 23 seats in polls, but only three come from the Netanyahu bloc parties. In fact, following the October 7 events, Bennett was not perceived as an alternative to Netanyahu at all, with polls showing a party under Bennett's leadership might win around 10 seats only.
During that period, it was Benny Gantz who was perceived as the only politician who could replace Netanyahu, with his State Camp party receiving 35 seats in polls. However, toward the end of 2024, a shift occurred within the anti-Netanyahu bloc, which began to see Bennett as an alternative, a situation that remains as of this writing.
In conclusion, unlike past cases where Bennett failed to remain relevant in public opinion, mainly relying on right-wing voters, this time he appears to be receiving stable support over time. This is thanks to voters from the anti-Netanyahu bloc, which has failed to produce a leadership alternative from within. Will Bennett manage to maintain the lead until the 2026 elections and succeed in forming the next government on his own merit? Only time will tell.
