Amos Hochstein, the US mediator for indirect talks on the maritime demarcation between Lebanon and Israel, will visit the two countries this week to resolve the issue of 860 square kilometers (332 square miles) under dispute in the Mediterranean Sea.
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The latest talks at Rosh Hanikra were paused several months ago, mainly due to Lebanon's demand to add another 1,460 square kilometers (564 square miles) to their original demand. Israel, of course, refused. Hochstein managed to persuade the sides to return to the talks, which will likely resume as early as this week. On the surface, it seems convenient conditions have emerged for an agreement. For its new demand to be considered official, Lebanon would have to have issued it to the United Nations signed by Michel Aoun, the country's president. Aoun, however, has declined to do so, thus opening the door for a return to negotiations. Another measure taken by Aoun was to replace the Lebanese Army's representative at the talks, known for his hard-line stance.
A solution to Lebanon's severe energy crisis doesn't appear to be on the horizon, despite Iran's delivery of four oil tankers to the country, and despite Egypt's commitment to supply natural gas via Jordan and Syria. Extracting natural gas off the Lebanese shores within the framework of an agreement with Israel would provide a suitable, long-term solution to the country's energy crisis.
Saad al-Hariri's departure from the political arena, after openly blaming Hezbollah and Iran for all of Lebanon's ills, limits Hezbollah's ability to continue opposing a maritime deal with Israel. Lebanon will hold general elections in a few months and Aoun wants to be able to showcase an achievement to the public, such as solving the acute energy crisis, in the hope that it will pave the path for his son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, to replace him as president.
Although these conditions do indeed seem conducive to a deal, the Lebanese side is worried about Israel's hidden agenda, specifically that it will use the talks to pursue diplomatic normalization between the countries. The chatter on the Israeli side has amplified these concerns. Hochstein, therefore, has a difficult task ahead. Recently, unverified reports have said he is considering allaying this Lebanese concern with an original proposal: Instead of dividing the disputed area between Lebanon and Israel, which could create technical and administrative problems in the future, an international energy consortium will be responsible for extracting the gas from the entire disputed area and then allocate the gas to Israel and Lebanon based on the distribution key determined by the first American mediator, Frederick Hoff. According to Hoff's proposal, 55% of all the natural gas in the disputed area would go to Lebanon and the rest to Israel.
Israel has already said in the past that it accepts Hoff's distribution outline. If Lebanon drops its demand for further territory, which extends into Israel's offshore Karish gas field, and in light of the conditions that have developed, the odds of finalizing an Israeli-Lebanese deal are reasonable.
American involvement at this stage is critical. Hochstein, who served in the IDF from 1992-1995, is considered one of the top energy experts in the US. To avoid sabotaging the efforts at this fragile juncture, Israel's mouthpieces must remain silent so as not to embarrass the Lebanese side or attract domestic pressures that could torpedo an arrangement. If the Lebanese want to issue statements for their own domestic consumption, that's their problem. In my view, considering the conditions that have materialized, we are closer than ever to an agreement. If the talks are successful, it will be a significant diplomatic achievement for Israel.
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