Is a Russian invasion of Ukraine "inevitable," a "matter of days," a "certain scenario" as some experts would have us believe, or are other outcomes still a possibility? Even now, it's hard to give a definitive answer. The assessment that Russia is preparing for war is based on a combination of three factors: The Russian military's offensive posture along the border with Ukraine, the lack of progress in diplomatic discussions, and the United States' public declaration that its intelligence information indicates that a "Russian invasion could happen at any moment."
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It seems the Americans genuinely believe such a scenario is imminent. Consequently, they have implemented last-minute measures: calling on US citizens to leave Ukraine immediately, stating that "the US government won't be able to evacuate [its citizens] in the case of a Russian attack," a phone call between Biden and Putin in which the US president reiterated that a Russian invasion would trigger severe and automatic sanctions, and efforts to enhance coordination between Western countries in terms of support for Ukraine and pressure on Russia.
On the other side, Kremlin mouthpieces continue denying any intention to attack Ukraine. They even accuse the West of inflaming tensions through a media campaign aimed at smearing Russia and justifying the West's expansionist aspirations.
How can we explain the contradiction between the US claims and Russian denials? One option is to view the public US statements for what they truly are: part of the psychological warfare and diplomatic campaign currently being waged. Hence they are worded tendentiously and present only what serves the interest of their authors. Another possibility is to latch onto a small but significant detail that appeared in the statements from some of the US mouthpieces, whereby it still wasn't clear whether Putin has made the final decision to invade.
If such is the case, we can surmise that Russia's preparations to invade Ukraine are meant as a threat and a means to pressure the US and other Western countries to meet its demands pertaining to NATO's expansion eastward, and to the relations between the US and Western countries with former Soviet bloc countries. For the Russian threat to be effective it has to be credible – as the US appears to believe it is right now. This doesn't mean it's a bluff. Quite the opposite is true. The threat is real, but the final decision in acting on it depends on the results of the developments currently unfolding, which helps explain the lack of clarity regarding Putin's ultimate decision. The American focus on Putin tells us this is also how the decision-makers in Washington see the situation. The impression, however, is that there's still a large gap between Putin's demands and the proposals being sent by the US.
Either way, once a credible threat is put in motion the temptation to follow through with it is considerable, such that even if this wasn't its creators' original intention, he could still find himself more attracted to the option due to his military's high level of readiness, considerations of prestige, and with a better understanding of the price he will likely pay.
Another scenario for how this crisis could unfold is to make the present situation a permanent one. In other words, the two global powers will conclude the present chapter in disagreement but also without war: Russia will emerge having improved its position and better prepared than before to act on shorter notice; the US will emerge having withstood Putin's dictates but also without war. Europe will breathe a sigh of relief, until the next time.
Meanwhile, what about Israel? The balance of threat and the potential opportunities from a war in Ukraine, together with the further exacerbation of the conflict between the US and West with Russia, are a net negative from Israel's perspective. Israel has good relations with all the parties involved and must aspire to preserve this state of affairs.
The crisis in Ukraine could adversely affect the Iranian issue. The crisis is already threatening to diminish its importance in the eyes of the international community. Israel must make sure the Iranians do not exploit the commotion to advance their interests, whether in the nuclear sphere or in other areas. At the same time, Israel will have to continue being vigilant and to ensure that the developments in Europe aren't used as justification for further concessions toward Iran.
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