Israel set itself a very difficult goal – to oust Iran from Syria. Not reduce its presence or check its activities – to stop it, entirely.
Many in Israel are convinced that we now have an unusual opportunity to do it. A defense official even said explicitly on Tuesday that for the first time since it went into Syria, Iran is cutting back its forces there and evacuating bases. The information itself is accurate, but the conclusion might be too hasty. We would have to be very optimistic to believe that a heavier barrage of strikes attributed to Israel than were carried out in the past will be what causes Iran to raise the white flag.
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There is no doubt that Iran is in serious trouble. The economic crisis there is bad, the result of draconian sanctions and the fall in oil prices. The Iranian public doesn't care about Hezbollah, Syrian President Bashar Assad, or the Houthis in Yemen. They want food and work. The coronavirus pandemic, which hit Iran harder than any other country in the region, has weakened the public's faith in the regime, which wasn't particularly strong to begin with.
The targeted killing of Revolutionary Guards commander Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani in January is also making things difficult for Iran. Soleimani had it all: he was a defense strategist and a political wizard. Without him, reality is much more complicated. His successor, Esmail Ghaani, is showing himself to be very active and more capable than he was assessed before he stepped into Soleimani's shoes, but he isn't and won't be Soleimani.
Israel wants to take advantage of the distress in Iran to establish facts on the ground, to strike every possible target in every possible location that is identified as Iranian and military, to give Tehran a hard time and make it realize that the price it is paying is too high for what it might get out of staying in Syria. Or as Defense Minister Naftali Bennett put it: "For Iran, Syria is an adventure a thousand kilometers from home. For us, it's our lives, so we're a lot more determined."
The way it looks, this is an appropriate strategy. The goal of ousting Iran is also utterly justified. Tehran has no reason to be in the area, other than spreading terrorism and destruction.
If Israel leaves it alone, it will find a monster that could wind up comprising an existential crisis. That is what Iran has been trying to do in recent years, and to prevent that, Israel has taken action thousands of times.
Now Israel is going one step further, and says so openly. Bennett on Tuesday issued an explicit warning that "Iranian soldiers active in Syrian territory will pay with their lives." That is not an empty threat: Israel means what it says, and it ready to fight to back it up, and make Syria pay a price, as well.
The problem is that Iran is serious, too, and it's not certain that it will turn tail. The Iranians have already proved that they're serious, sophisticated, and stubborn – if they are shoved out the door, they'll come in through the window, or down the chimney. Now that airports are being attacked regularly, they'll find an alternative.
Israel has racked up an impressive series of accomplishments, most recently being named responsible for a strike overnight Monday, but victory is still a long way off. Iran will continue to operate, and cause pain. The battle that began when Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini rose to power 41 years ago won't end in a moment just because someone in Israel decides that it will.
