Israel and Iran on Saturday took another step closer to all-out conflict. What has thus far transpired out of the public eye or through foreign emissaries – carrying Israeli messages to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Islamic Jihad in Gaza – has now bubbled to the surface and threatens to drag the region into a serious conflagration.
It is difficult to exaggerate the severity of the Iranian threat. Cynics will almost certainly link it to matters that are political (investigations into the prime minister), personal (the defense minister's status), or economic (the IDF's desire for more funding), but the reality is that there is a real wolf on our doorstep whose intentions are clear: to entrench itself in Syria and open an active front against Israel.
According to the Israeli assessment this was supposed to be a monthslong process. During that time Iran would plan to build bases in Syria (for air, sea and land forces), which would allow it to transfer forces and maintain a permanent presence for its personnel and for the Shiite militias it controls. In early December, an Iranian base under construction was attacked near Damascus; the attack was attributed to Israel and was viewed as a sign of its staunch intentions to prevent Iran from establishing a foothold in Syria.
It isn't clear why Iran chose to deploy a drone at this specific juncture. Was it an attempt to show that Israel is vulnerable and penetrable, or was it retaliatory? Either way, the act was a testament to the Iranians' self-confidence. Despite the hits they have incurred and despite the diplomatic pressure Israel is applying – they were not worried about taking offensive action, an act of war, with the knowledge that doing so could come at a steep price.
Israel had prepared accordingly. The Iranian drone was shot out of the sky by an Apache helicopter, and it appears the ensuing airstrikes were not improvised. And yet, Israel will have a hard time summing the day up as a success: the downing of an F-16 is a victory for the radical axis fighting Israel. Not only was it the first time since the first Lebanon War in 1982 that an Israeli jet was downed by anti-aircraft fire (when navigator Aharon Katz was killed and the pilot, Gil Fogel, was taken captive in Syria), after dozens of strikes attributed to Israel it now appears that Israel cannot operate in Syria unchallenged and at no cost.
Flying planes into battle is a dangerous profession. It comes with its fair share of risks. Actually, it is unusual to sustain a "perfect record" for so long, and yet – the air force will now have to seriously examine itself to ascertain whether its successful string of reported attacks, in which the Syrians seemed to be shooting at shadows, hasn't bred an atmosphere of complacency.
Such an inquiry is imperative for what is to come. Saturday's events pushed the sides to dig into their red lines even further. Israel will assuredly continue to act against weapons transfers to Hezbollah and against Iranian efforts to establish a foothold in Syria, and Iran will continue to prod and find holes to publicly embarrass Israel.
Syria, too, which has been the neighborhood punching bag for all parties involved, is sure to stand a bit straighter now. The downing of the Israeli jet will provide a tailwind for the regime to continue challenging Israeli activity in the name of preserving its sovereignty. In this regard, Israel has another reason to worry: Damascus on Saturday completely merged its interests with those of Iran, and declared – through its actions – that attacking Iranian targets on its soil is no different than attacking Syrian targets.
Israel is now likely to accelerate its diplomatic activity against Iran. The world will be warned that Iran is dragging the region into war, which could even spiral into a clash between global blocs. Although Russia didn't intervene in Saturday's exchange of blows, the Israeli attack on the Iranian base near Tadmor was carried out very close to its forces and could press Moscow into responding.
Tehran and Damascus very much want this to happen, which obligates Israel to take even greater pains to be precise and tighten its coordination with Moscow. We need to hope this will help. Saturday's events – which included the most massive Israeli attack in Syria since 1982; and the unusual amount of anti-aircraft missiles fired by Syrian batteries at Israeli warplanes – were the starting point for the next round of fighting, which could be even more violent and complex.
Saturday's events highlight Israel's dilemma: Either avoid taking action and accept Iran's presence in the area, with all its implications; or act in a manner that can potentially spark a general conflagration that includes Lebanon and Gaza.
It appears that Israel now has no choice but to insist on the second alternative, knowing that it could come at a price – even a heavy one. Considering the adversary, this is certainly a possible scenario. Unlike Hezbollah and Hamas, Iran is a different league of enemy: more formidable, professional, brutal. And if Tehran has thus far avoided acting against Israel directly, it is now clear that the Iranians are firmly on our fences.
