In what appears – on the surface – to be a positive and dramatic reversal of the recent trend of escalation in the Persian Gulf, it was reported on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump informed his cabinet of "significant progress" with Iran. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo added that "for the first time the Iranians are ready to also discuss their ballistic missile program."
The continuation of Iran's long-range ballistic missile program, as a reminder, was one of the primary reasons for the United States' withdrawal from the nuclear deal signed by previous President Barack Obama. There's no point to stalling the production of a nuclear bomb by a few years while simultaneously allowing the Iranians to unabatedly develop a warhead to deliver the said bomb.
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Is Tehran folding? Has the path to a new deal – which will not only stop the nuclear program but also missile development and regional subversion – indeed been paved? Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on Tuesday supposedly indicated that Tehran had altered its position, saying that if the US wants to talk about Iran's missiles, "they need first to stop selling all these weapons, including missiles, to our region," referencing Saudi Arabia.
But the Iranian mission to the United Nations rushed to issue a clarification that Zarif's comment was purely hypothetical. "Our missile program," the statement said, "isn't up for negotiation."
It's possible the optimistic reports emanating from Washington about Tehran's change of course were premature but one thing is certain: In the wake of Iran's many belligerent comments and provocative actions, over the past week a relative calm has prevailed over the Persian Gulf. Zarif was approved to enter the US to attend the UN General Assembly in New York, and Iran tempered its threats following the seizure of its oil tanker in the Strait of Gibraltar. Both sides, it seems, are looking for a way to talk without it appearing like surrender or a unilateral concession.
It's unclear whether the formula for resolving the crisis has been found, but one good thing has already emerged: The optimistic leaks from the White House have caused global oil prices to plummet.
