The ongoing violence and disorder in Israel's Arab communities, most recently amongst the Bedouins of the Negev during festive Tu Be'Shvat tree plantings, and punctuated by events during Operation Guardian of the Walls last spring, are extremely dangerous to Israel's national security.
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The threat is made all the more perilous and existential by Iran's exploitation of it. The regime of the Ayatollahs recognized a long time ago the effectiveness and advantages of supporting hostile forces from within Israel's Arab citizenry, in addition to those amongst the Arabs of Judea, Samaria, and Gaza.
Iran's Qassem Soleimani was one of the architects, if not the main architect, of this strategy. Hostilities in Israel's mixed cities and Arab population centers undermines Israel's internal security and creates an active war-front against Israel from within its own borders for Iran to utilize (similar to how the Arab states took advantage of the activities of local Arab armed groups during Israel's War of Independence in 1948). In the early 2000s a similar dynamic was present during the "Second Intifada", but the broader direct threat from Iran and the status of its nuclear program were less acute at the time.
This attempt to create a domestic war-front in Israel is also bolstered by the recently more intense manipulation and exploitation of Israel's free society and democratic system against itself.
In an open war between Israel and Iran, in addition to a domestic front, Israel would have to face large scale battles on and beyond its borders, as well as confrontations with "over the horizon" forces as far away as Yemen along with airborne and ballistic attacks on the home front. For Iran, this concentrated array of threats against Israel is an ideal force posture. Israeli military and intelligence efforts over the last number of years have degraded Iran's assets and capabilities, but they have not yet been neutralized to a high enough degree, and Iran is not lacking in determination.
This past November the Israel Police said that a significant increase in weapons smuggling into Israel from Lebanon and along Israel's eastern border with Jordan, were a coordinated effort by Hezbollah, and by extension Iran, to arm hostile forces amongst Israel's Arab citizens.
Amongst those hostile forces a good portion double as criminal elements. This makes the weapons in their possession and smuggled to them a problem in day-to-day life for many law-abiding Arab citizens who often fall victim to them. Even if not killed or injured by the illegal weaponry, large swaths of Arab society in Israel are adversely affected by the criminality they facilitate.
However, Illegal weapons retention – weapons also acquired from smugglers and workshops in Arab areas of Judea and Samaria – is, unfortunately, more than a niche phenomenon amongst Israel's Arabs. Weapons held and sometimes stockpiled in the general Arab public for anything from celebratory gunfire at weddings to the day a clan blood feud might erupt, are an armory with the potential to be called upon in a new Intifada/insurrection.
Iran capitalizing on, and from their perspective hopefully directing, at least in part, domestic Arab violence throughout Israel, has the potential to be as, or even more, complex to suppress than during Operation Guardian of the Walls. Such a challenge for the State of Israel would be a significant advantage for Iran in open general war.
That difficulty in preventing or quelling a domestic war-front brings me back to the point about the manipulation and exploitation of Israel's free and democratic society. This phenomenon has been recognized as a growing problem throughout the West. Various forces both foreign and domestic try to use Israel's very freedoms and openness to undermine its identity and capabilities, something that was not a factor in 1948 when there was widespread violence within all of Israel's borders.
Self-righteous political correctness, disinformation legitimized and magnified by social media, corruption of democratic processes, attempts at national identity and cohesion erasure, divisive multiculturalism, identity politics, and faux tolerance in the service of intolerance and silencing opposition, are but a few weaponized tools in this exploitation of freedom and democracy.
In Israel's case, the problem is even more menacing, as it is compounded, and again the Iranian's understand this well, by consistent external threats. Essential steps such as administrative detentions, more aggressive rules of engagement, proactive riot prevention and suppression, severe prison sentences, and the deployment of IDF forces within the borders of the country, would need to be implemented without a moment's hesitation to quell a potential insurrection-a mother of all Intifadas – by hostile elements of the Arab population within Green Line Israel.
In Judea and Samaria as well, a vigilant and perhaps even stronger defense posture will be necessary to ensure that in a general open war with Iran the various terrorist groups and armed factions there do not act as an Iranian light infantry brigade and succeed in opening up another front against Israel.
The perils of a war front from within were brought into stark focus by comments from the now-former commander of the IDF's Technology and Logistics Division back in November 2021. He stated that the IDF would avoid certain transport routes that are in proximity to Israeli Arab population centers during wartime. The disbelief and outrage at the statement were swift, and the IDF would subsequently make clear that no such dangerous precedent would be made, and that nothing would obstruct the IDF.
Also this past November, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz revealed that Iran attempted to smuggle explosive ordinance to terrorists in Judea and Samaria back in 2018 by way of a drone launched from the T-4 airbase in Syria. The incident was well-publicized at the time, but the weapons smuggling aspect of it was kept under wraps.
This illustrates a clear aspiration on the part of Iran to not only have weapons smuggled by land into Israel but also by air, much like with their ongoing efforts throughout the broader Middle East and even beyond to arm their allies and proxies. For Israel, this is not surprising given past events such as the Karine-A affair back in 2002. The explosives-laden drone from Syria was intercepted and shot down by Israel. The evolving threat the event demonstrated however is still ever-present – a new and sinister way to arm terrorists within Israel's borders –though given Israel's very effective and unprecedented air defense systems, not a very viable one.
The Iranians also look to their experience turning Gaza into a full-fledged war front against Israel, something that was achieved years ago. They view it as a template for Judea and Samaria, just as southern Lebanon was a template for Gaza. Now the Iranians have increased their voracious appetite and feel the time is ripe to add large swaths of Israel's Arab citizenry to their war plans.
The restoration of law and order, proper governance, and the full exercising of Israel's sovereignty amongst its Arab population are critical national security priorities in and of themselves. Taking into consideration Iran's designs on a potential Israeli Arab insurrection, it is a national security priority that becomes part of a strategic effort against a wide-scale existential threat. Israel must act accordingly.
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