On May 14, Turkey will hold elections. For the first time since rising to the top, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's political survival is on the line.
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The waning purchasing power of voters due to the depreciation of the Turkish lira and the skyrocketing inflation of 112% have been major factors in Erdogan's drop in popularity. These economic indicators have not stopped him from tapping the economy for his campaign, using economic handouts and debt forgiveness.
For Erdogan, this strategy worked, until February 6, when an earthquake ravaged parts of southern Turkey and exposed his regime's incompetence in helping the disaster victims, especially during the first 48 hours. As a result, his popularity plummeted and for the first time in 20 years, the momentum appeared to be on the Opposition's side.
The leader of the secular Republican People's Party (CHP), Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, has managed to coalesce the six Opposition parties and form the Nation Alliance. The various elements of the bloc have deep ideological divisions, making such a pact all but impossible because it has to accommodate secular views, social democrats, liberals, national religions, nationalists, and conservatives. It also has de facto support from the Kurdish lawmakers. This is perhaps the "Anyone but Erdogan" coalition.
You could be forgiven for thinking Erdogan's potential downfall would be good for Israel. But with the National Alliance including figures like former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu and Temel Karamollaoğlu, the head of the Felicity Party, the main Islamic opposition party, it would be premature to say that the president's departure would usher in improved ties between Jerusalem and Ankara. Davutoğlu has been fiercely opposed to the normalization with Israel and Karamollaoğlu wants to sever bilateral relations altogether.
A post-Erdogan Turkey's stance toward Israel will depend, to a large extent, on the degree to which CHP is at the mercy of those two individuals.
If CHP gets fewer seats than expected while Davutoğlu and Karamollaoğlu outperform the polls the leader of the alliance might have to become tougher on Israel as president. For example, if hostilities break between Israel and terrorist groups, he may be subject to immense pressure from the two.
In any event, a new Turkish leadership will not create a golden age for Turkey-Israel relations in the near term. In fact, the opposite may be true: Kılıçdaroğlu could try to rally his fragile coalition by burnishing his anti-Israel credentials. There are signs this is already happening: In June 2022, he announced that he would seek to reopen the case against Israel over the 2010 Mavi Marmara flotilla. This could be a bad omen for relations if he were to assume power, and therefore Israel must be extra careful in its handling of the unpredictable new-old political players.
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