The inauguration of President Donald Trump took place on January 20, 2025. After four years of Joe Biden's leadership of the world's greatest superpower, the presidency has returned to Trump. The incoming US president did not spare criticism of the Biden administration during its tenure, addressing many issues, including those related to the Israel-Gaza war and the broader Middle East.
Many questions are being asked about what Trump's upcoming term will look like, but here in Israel, we are especially concerned with the questions related to our region, the Middle East, and the balance of power between Western supporters and anti-Western forces in the area. So, how will Trump impact the Middle East?
In my estimation, Trump will take significant steps to strengthen American influence over political processes in the Middle East. This can be inferred from his statements before his inauguration and his initial decisions and actions in his new-old role. Trump took office amid the implementation of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, and even before his inauguration, he made it clear to both warring sides that he would not tolerate violations of the ceasefire. He made it clear that he would not accept any disobedience to his orders.
When the President of the United States tells an Islamist terror organization responsible for the kidnapping of 250 innocent civilians and the murder of 1,200, including babies, the elderly, and women, this is understandable. However, when the President of the United States says the same to the State of Israel, it sends a strong message. Trump has a vision for the future of the region and is determined not to allow either Arab anti-American forces or Jewish pro-American supporters to hinder his plan.
It's clear that the policy Trump will adopt will be anti-Iranian. He has already stated that if Hamas defies him, he will open the gates of hell on them. But here, he is also beginning to target other Iranian allies. On January 22, 2025, Trump redefined the Houthis as a "foreign terrorist organization," just as he did during his first term.
During Biden's presidency, the group was removed from the US terrorist list. Still, last year, the Houthis launched an attack on ships in the Red Sea, and Biden's administration redefined them as a "Specially Designated Global Terrorist Organization." The difference between "foreign terrorist organization" and "Specially Designated Global Terrorist Organization" is crucial in its implications, as anyone who assists a "foreign terrorist organization" automatically faces severe sanctions. In essence, Trump has reinstated the Houthis on the most severe US terror list to target them and those who aid them.
Alongside his firm stance against Iran and its proxies in the Middle East, Trump seeks to focus on another issue close to his heart: normalization. He ended his previous term by signing the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, later joined by Morocco and Sudan. Trump aims to create new collaborations in the Middle East that will serve America's regional interests, particularly against anti-Western forces.
A normalization agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel would change the entire geopolitical map, not only in the Middle East but nearly globally. If the Saudis accept Israel and "do business" with it openly, it will pave the way for future collaborations with other moderate Sunni countries currently hesitant to engage with Israel publicly. However, aside from the Israel-Saudi relations, a normalization agreement between these two countries would undoubtedly align Saudi Arabia with the West.
During Biden's term, the Saudis distanced themselves from the Americans, partly due to the removal of the Houthis from the global terrorist lists. This distancing led the Saudis to seek alternatives, and we saw Saudi Arabia, along with China, renew ties with Iran, a blow to pro-Western supporters in the region. It seems that Trump's goal is to bring Saudi Arabia back into the American fold, using this move to curb Iranian and Chinese influence in the Middle East and its periphery – India, African nations, and the Caucasus.
Two countries are set to be impacted by Trump's strategic moves: the first is, of course, Israel, which is engaged in a difficult war against Islamist terror organizations in the region. The second is Azerbaijan, a country that borders Iran, is an ally of Turkey, and a true friend of Israel. Azerbaijan is a pro-Israel country, despite its majority Shia Muslim population, which, logically, should make it a staunch supporter of its southern neighbor, Iran. But it is not, which creates strategic threats to Azerbaijan's survival, just as in the past.
Today, Iran can send operatives to carry out attacks in Azerbaijan whenever it wishes. Iran operates a network of agents, some of whom were involved in drug trafficking, targeting Azerbaijani Jews and possibly Muslims as well – there's no way to know for sure. Azerbaijan is working to strengthen itself against the Iranian enemy, which operates south of it in Iran, through agents or militants in its own territory and in neighboring Armenia. Iranians are increasingly expanding their influence in Armenia, in part to weaken Azerbaijan's operational reach and, of course, to extend their tentacles to as many targets as possible in the region.
We need to understand that when Iran weakens a pro-Western country in the Middle East, it sends a message to all other pro-Western nations not to engage with it. More importantly, Iran strengthens itself in the process. Therefore, we can certainly expect the Trump administration to bolster those countries seeking peace with the West, and Azerbaijan is among them. In fact, President Trump views a strong Azerbaijan to be key to stability in the South Caucuses. The Americans will utilize Azerbaijan in order to strengthen the relationship between Israel and Turkey, as well as to confront Iranian aggression in the region.
The Democrats did not view the region in this manner, as they are heavily influenced by the Armenian lobby. However, the Republicans are less influenced by the Armenian lobby and therefore are more likely to see the merits that Azerbaijan has to offer than their Democratic opponents. Therefore, a Trump presidency is likely to pressure Armenia to make peace with Azerbaijan and Turkey, so that the Armenians can be distanced from the Iranians, rather than embolden hard-liner Armenian positions.
Trump understands that Azerbaijan is the antithesis of the Islamic revolution in Iran. Although Azerbaijanis are Shia, they are secular. Unlike the Shia populations in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Syria, Azerbaijanis have not turned extremist. The Islamic revolution's messages were to oppose Western influences, and its leaders saw the United States as the "Great Satan" and Israel as the "Little Satan." However, Azerbaijanis reach out to NATO and the West, seeking collaborations that will benefit all parties involved.
The Trump administration could use Azerbaijan as a model for young Shia Muslims in Lebanon (for example) to show them there is another way – a path without terrorism that leads to safer, more peaceful lives. In this regard, Azerbaijan could significantly strengthen its position in the Caucasus and the Middle East. This could force Iran to retreat from its offensive plans against Azerbaijan, fearing entanglement with the United States.
Trump's upcoming term will not be just any presidency. He takes office with many tasks ahead of him. I believe he will work to weaken Iran and its proxies in the Middle East and strengthen his Western allies – Egypt, Jordan, Israel, and Azerbaijan. Such actions will create a "New Middle East," with thriving tourism, shared public transportation systems, and much greater peace than under the watch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, its proxies and those who wished to appease them in the West.
