US President Joe Biden has been feeling confident lately, perhaps for the first time since taking office. Inflation is down, employment numbers are up, other domestic policy accomplishments like the infrastructure bill and passage of the largest climate change package in US history, major health care reforms and other files like loans for American students and more.
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Plus some foreign policy wins, most notably on the war in Ukraine. But amidst these circumstances, which led Biden to announce his candidacy in the next presidential election within the next two months, the question of old classified documents discovered in his home presented the US president with a new and stiff challenge.
These old documents – dating back to Biden's time as vice president under Barack Obama and found in his current residence in Delaware – present him with a political stumper. He will face legal investigations that could last weeks or months, and media campaigns by his Republican opponents.
This puts him on the defensive for a period that Republicans will inevitably try to extend, pressuring the president to withdraw or even delay his candidacy and surrounding him with a high level of distrust that can be exploited later in the final race.
Shortly after the bad fallout from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan has subsided and the Biden administration has succeeded in restoring some measure of credibility for the US with its transatlantic allies by continuing to provide military and material support to Ukraine in its war with Russia and by making relative progress in repairing America's image as the leader of the so-called free world, at least the issue of the secret documents is a complex setback for President Biden, putting him in the same hot seat alongside Trump.
They face similar allegations with different details. At issue is not just the legal ramifications of the allegations. There's also the media and political attention to the controversy.
The Biden situation, on an issue redolent of Trump's, has shaken the Democrats' chances of taking on their persistent political opponent, who has announced his candidacy for the upcoming presidential election and is so far the only GOP candidate.
The expected boon of Biden's relative popularity amid some domestic policy accomplishments was surely impugned by his critics' predictable media campaigns related to the classified documents affair, as Biden had voiced harsh words of his own about the Trump situation. He had made a point of saying that such documents have an inviolability that should be respected.
So if he makes the same mistake, it is likely to have more repercussions than with Trump, from whom the public has become accustomed to many known missteps. This is in contrast to Biden, who cultivates an image of institutional and partisan commitment, rationality, and political leadership.
What is certain is that Republicans will try to maximize the political impact of Biden's classified documents, even if it negatively impacts Trump's political situation, as Republicans are not fully behind his candidacy in the upcoming presidential election. Therefore, it can be expected that the investigation against Biden will continue in the coming period and the Republicans will fixate on it.
This will also deprive the Democrats of one of their weapons to get a leg up on undermining Trump. One of the prime downsides of the secret documents for President Biden is that it could fuel opposition from a large segment of Dems to his re-nomination for the next presidential election.
Another reason for their opposition, owing largely to his advanced age – he will turn eighty in November – is the growing likelihood that some other Republican candidate will defeat him over this issue.
Putting it all together, the classified documents conundrum has surfaced at a totally inopportune time for President Joe Biden and could have a ripple effect on his policies and decisions, especially with regard to his candidacy in the next presidential election.
Its hold, in turn, depends on Republicans using it to regain leverage and favorability, which have fallen as a result of the midterm congressional elections, and to overcome the rifts that have dogged the Republican Party in recent years.
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