Prof. Eyal Zisser

Eyal Zisser is a lecturer in the Middle East History Department at Tel Aviv University.

Hezbollah's troubles won't divert its attention from Israel

While the Iranian-backed Shiite terrorist group is facing growing opposition in Lebanon, it won't relent on its efforts to maintain deterrence vis-à-vis Israel.

 

In neighboring Lebanon, gunfights in the streets between rival militias are not unusual. Lebanon is a failed state, whose government - when one is finally established – is devoid of control and influence over those operating within in, chiefly, of course, Hezbollah. After all, Lebanese politicians, including government ministers, are at the ones leading the militias raging in the streets.

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The lack of governance serves their political and business interests, so there is no chance that they will act seriously to change this reality.

Still, the battles in the center of the capital Beirut were highly unusual, even in Lebanese terms. Not necessarily because of the use of machine guns and rocket-propelled grenade launchers, but because the fire was directed at Hezbollah – the most important and powerful political and military force in the country today.

Hezbollah, and the Shiite Amal movement, sent followers to take to the streets and demonstrate, demanding the dismissal of the judge investigating the devastating 2020 blast in the Port of Beirut. The blast killed hundreds, injured thousands, and caused billions of dollars worth of damage.

Hezbollah is apparently worried that the judge will point the finger at it, especially over the fact that it has been argued in the past that the organization purchased the ammonium nitrate that triggered the blast from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, and has allowed parts of the port to come under Iranian control.

Usually, Hezbollah is not unfazed by the judicial authorities in Lebanon. A few years ago, an international court ruled that Hezbollah was behind the 2005 assassination of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The group ignored the ruling and nothing happened. But the current situation in Lebanon is far more precarious.

Lebanon is in struggling with the worst political and economic crisis in its history. Water and power supplies are spotty, gas stations are running out of gas, and pharmacies are running out of medicines. This has led a growing number of Lebanese, even among the Shiite community, to see Hezbollah as responsible for the crisis rather than someone who can help resolve it.

The fear factor cultivated by Hezbollah seems to have been shattered. Only a few months ago, the residents of the Druze village stormed Hezbollah operatives who fired missiles from the village's entrances at Israel. They beat them and handed them over and the vehicle in which they were traveling to the Lebanese Army. The latter, however, quickly hand them over back to Hezbollah.

And yet, the atmosphere in Lebanon is not the same as it was on the eve of the civil war some 50 years ago. No one is interested in war and no one is capable to wage a military confrontation against Hezbollah. Most of the Christian public is in a marriage of convenience with the group, while the Sunnis lack military power, leadership, and especially a desire to go into battle.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, for his part, was quick to label Lebanese forces as culprits. This is an extremist-Maronite Christian group that once belonged to the Phalanges, which allied with Israeli in the First Lebanon War.

Still, Hezbollah needs legitimacy and public support. However, as the Iraqi election has proven by dealing the pro-Iranian militias in the country, including Hezbollah-Iraq, a massive blow – even among Shiites, criticism of those who put their faith in Tehran is rising.

Hezbollah is in trouble, but this will not divert its attention from Israel. As in the past, the Shiite terrorist group is not interested in a confrontation, but it is determined to preserve the equation of deterrence and not allow Israel to exploit its weakness.

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