Although most Israelis fear Sept. 1 may come along with another teachers' strike, there is another reason why we should be concerned: another war on Israel's northern border in the wake of the most severe threats since 2006.
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The very fact that Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has emerged from the bunker where he has been hiding most of the past 16 years suggests that the effect of the crushing blow he was dealt in the 2006 Second Lebanon War has somewhat faded. Nasrallah's swagger means he is convinced that another flare-up with Israel will be very different than the one that had him run into hiding in 2006.
Nasrallah is not the adventurous or gambling type. His many years at the helm have taught him how to sound lofty rhetoric while adopting a cautious posture to avoid various pitfalls. He is not going to suddenly launch a surprise attack on Israel with a missile barrage on Tel Aviv, which would surely result in a strong retaliation. On the other hand, he is willing to play with fire and is convinced he can control the blaze.
The threats he has been sounding are very clear: If Israel goes ahead with the plann to extract gas from the Karish field without resolving the dispute over the maritime border, the Shiite terrorist group would act to stop Israel, even if this means a full-scale conflagration. To show just how serious he is, Nasrallah has sent drones toward the Karish barge and may very well do so again, or perhaps even escalate things by firing rockets towards its general direction.
This poses a direct threat to Israel's sovereignty and its strategic assets. It could present much greater consequences than just breaching the land border or targeting soldiers on it, which usually lead to rather limited hostilities that Israel chooses to contain.
Gantz has recently warned that Israel would retaliate to any provocation and that it is ready for any campaign in Lebanon should the need arise. Senior Israeli officials have assessed that things could evolve into "multi-day" fighting, which is another way of saying a major confrontation between the two sides along the border. But if this is the conventional wisdom, it suggests Israeli policymakers have yet to learn the lessons of 2006. But "days of fighting" ultimately morph into total war for which a surprised Israel is ill-prepared.
Those who envision a multi-day offensive that would have Nasrallah fire missile barrages on Israeli cities and destroy strategic assets while Israel responds by just destroying a few weapon depots or assassinating a few officials are kidding themselves. It's best if they go through a paradigm shift altogether.
In 2006, Israel showed mercy toward Lebanon, but this did not stand the test of time because Lebanon and Hezbollah are one and the same. Israel had failed to realize that by targeting the Lebanese state it would have been able to hurt the Shiite terrorist group. Despite this, the Israeli onslaught on Hezbollah's Dahiya stronghold in Beirut – despite its disorderly approach – did have an impact. If Nasrallah wants war, Israel should prepare to go all in. But if Israel's threats on the catastrophic impact to Lebanon do not materialize once the war breaks out, Nasrallah will interpret this as yet another "divine victory," laying the groundwork for yet another flare-up down the road.
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