Bit by bit, with help from the Iranians and Syrians, Hezbollah is gaining increased direct and indirect control over the Lebanese parliament, government, and presidency. The coronavirus crisis gave it some glory, thanks to the impressive hospitals, doctors, and medical equipment it supplied. Today, Hezbollah is the dominant force in Lebanon, but many in Lebanon and outside it are unhappy about it.
At the protests over the country's deteriorating economy, which recently resumed, shouts against Hezbollah and its enormous military arsenal could be heard for the first time since last October. Protesters were demanding that UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which dates from 2004 and demands that Hezbollah disarms be implemented. The battle against Hezbollah has led to the recent establishment of a unified Sunni front under the leadership of Radwan al-Sayed, a social activist with ties to Saudi Arabia, that will fight the hegemon of Hezbollah and its allies in the leadership. A number of Lebanese army veterans have organized, with the same purpose in mind.
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Another front that has been set up against Hezbollah is the American Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which took effect at the start of June. The purpose of the law is to apply harsh sanctions on Syrian President Bashar Assad and his regime, as well as those who cooperate with it. These sanctions have a direct effect on Lebanon; they could hurt Hezbollah, as a collaborator with Assad, as well as Lebanese trade with Syria.
The Caesar Act poses a dilemma for the Lebanese government. There will either be internal clashes because Hezbollah opposes the law, or economic suffocation. Hezbollah believes that the Caesar Act is the last card US President Trump holds, and that if it can survive the sanctions without too much damage, the US won't have any more leverage against it. Hezbollah is apparently unaware of how determined the Americans are.
Another bone of contention is UNIFIL. It's no secret that Hezbollah has built effectively private roads to which UNIFIL has no access. The UN Security Council is slated to decide on an extension of the UNIFIL mandate at the end of August.
Israel and the US want to change the status of Hezbollah in order to implement UNSC Resolution 1701, which will seriously curtail the UNIFIL presence on the Lebanon-Israel border. France and Germany want to improve its performance. Whereas Lebanon wants the UNIFIL mandate to be renewed automatically, without any changes.
These three fronts are a huge headache for Hezbollah, but even worse -- the Lebanese government is between a rock and a hard place.
Hezbollah has no rivals that can stand up to it, either militarily or diplomatically, so it's likely that it will pursue its hard-line policy that only serves its own interests. As for Israel, the red lines it has laid down for Hezbollah and the Lebanese government are alive and kicking, and Hezbollah cannot ignore them.
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