On Dec. 31, the IDF spokesperson released a routine announcement about IDF operations in southern Lebanon. The announcement referred to the discovery and destruction of a weapons cache in the Saluki region. Shortly after, there was a report about thwarting an attempt by Hezbollah operatives to transfer weapons from a warehouse in southern Lebanon to a vehicle parked near the building.
These announcements joined other data published by the IDF about its operations in the first month of the ceasefire on the southern Lebanon front. According to the report, the IDF eliminated 44 Hezbollah members, conducted 25 strikes in Lebanon, and identified 120 violations of the agreement by Hezbollah.
This suggests that if we thought Hezbollah was on its knees, submissive and begging for its life, this isn't the picture that emerges when looking north. Hezbollah is provocative, attempting to rehabilitate and strengthen itself, continuing to see itself as Lebanon's defender. If Israel doesn't maintain the ceasefire to the letter, Hezbollah believes it will be entitled to act.
Moreover, Lebanese sources report that Hezbollah links the situation in Syria to that in Lebanon. The fall of Bashar Assad's regime, the occupation of the buffer zone, violations of Syrian sovereignty – "especially the perpetuation of the occupation of the Golan Heights" – and violations of the ceasefire agreement, all these "grant legitimacy to Hezbollah's internal adherence not to surrender its weapons as if it were a defeated party, while Israel operates without restraint." The message is clear: Hezbollah sees Israeli activity in Syria and Lebanon as justification to maintain its military power and is preparing the ground for continued "resistance" to the "Israeli enemy."
To achieve this goal, Hezbollah operates in several ways:
Public Relations
PR is important to the organization for internal relations and also with the international community. Therefore, Hezbollah operatives transparently display their cooperation with monitoring mechanisms, including UNIFIL and the South Lebanon Army, emphasizing that Israel repeatedly violates agreements – and that they will return to fighting if the situation continues.
In a speech delivered last weekend, Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem said, "There is no timeline that defines resistance actions, neither in the agreement nor after the end of the 60-day period." However, he explained, Hezbollah is giving an opportunity for the agreement's implementation and showing patience, but "this doesn't mean we'll be patient for 60 days." The resistance continues, Qassem announced, adding threateningly: "The occupation in Lebanon cannot continue without resistance."
Rehabilitation
Hezbollah is making enormous efforts to rehabilitate its political and military capabilities. IDF operations in recent weeks demonstrate how determined the organization is to save hidden weapons stockpiles and find ways to smuggle weapons from Syria under cover of its prevailing instability. Hezbollah is also busy filling the void in the organization's military and political leadership, aiming to return to orderly operations. Despite the hit to the organization's operatives (about 3,800 casualties), Hezbollah hasn't lost its ability to fight. It still has tens of thousands of fighters in its regular and reserve forces, waiting for orders.
Finally, maintaining ties with Iran
Without the connection to Iran, Hezbollah has no existence. After the fall of Assad's regime – the bridge connecting Tehran to its Shiite terror arm in Lebanon – both sides are trying to maintain economic and military aid to the organization, whose economic capabilities weren't harmed despite the Israeli Air Force's attack on Hezbollah's banking system in Lebanon last October. The flow of funds, mainly from drug trade in South America, Africa, and the Middle East, continues and provides the organization with the oxygen it needs.
Given that escalation is imminent, along with attempts by Hezbollah and Iran to test Israel's red lines, Israel must continue to keep the IDF in southern Lebanon even beyond the 60-day ceasefire agreement period. It's important to apply heavy pressure on Hezbollah with great intensity to deter it, but mainly to preserve the new balance of power equation against it. That is, unlike in 2006, Israel is now determined to enforce the upgraded Resolution 1701 and not rely on any other entity to do the work for it.
