Something has changed in the past few days: color has returned to the faces at Democratic candidate Kamala Harris' campaign headquarters. While it's not entirely clear what sparked this change, according to a campaign source, last week's downcast expressions have been replaced with smiles and visible optimism.
This shift might be connected to recent polls showing Trump's momentum has stalled, with Harris now leading in more swing states – though in two major battleground states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the race remains extremely close. According to the senior source, internal campaign polling focused on key regions might show more decisive results in her favor.
One possible explanation lies in the correction factor most pollsters now apply to account for pro-Trump bias. This adjustment aims to avoid the significant polling errors seen before the 2020 election, and especially before 2016, when almost no pollster predicted Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton.
This optimism at headquarters has translated into last-minute campaign changes. On Sunday night, reporters aboard Harris' Air Force 2, en route from North Carolina to Michigan, received notice of an unscheduled New York stop after Harris accepted an invitation to appear on Saturday Night Live.
As is common in American media, Harris appeared comfortable there, though there had been hesitation given her previous challenging interviews. The show boosted Harris while poking fun at Trump. Actress Maya Rudolph "impersonated" Harris in a comedic dialogue with the real Harris, concluding with, "I've decided to vote for both of us."
Harris then flew to Michigan, a day after Trump's visit, where he unexpectedly received some support from local Muslim communities. Their alignment with him stems from social conservatism and disgust with progressive Democratic positions, as well as potential influence over Middle East policy. Meanwhile, the Harris campaign is focusing on Pennsylvania, where staffers reportedly have knocked on doors and called approximately 2 million voters and undecided individuals.
Early voting this time presents a different picture than before. Previously, most early and mail-in voters identified as Democratic supporters. Now the situation is much more balanced.
Eyes Turn Again to Pennsylvania
Once again, all eyes are on Pennsylvania. Last time, early voting showed 60% Democrats and less than 30% Republicans. Now Harris' lead has narrowed to 45% versus 38% according to weekend data, with growth in unaffiliated voters. This shift is attributed to changed Republican strategy, which invested significantly in promoting early voting.
In the previous election, Trump led Biden in at least two states before early voting tallies, only to lose afterward. Now, counting more than 71 million ballots (as of yesterday) could delay final results and the announcement of the next president.
Democrats are successfully leveraging "slip-ups" by Trump and his supporters in speeches, especially targeting specific audiences. Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe's comments about the "garbage island" referring to Puerto Rico were cut into a video distributed to masses of Puerto Rican, Cuban, and Spanish-speaking voters. Harris' campaign noted there's even a Cuban immigrant center in Florida.
Meanwhile, Trump focuses on illegal immigration – an issue where Harris struggled in her role as vice president. His campaign distributes videos and messages about crime statistics and serious criminal cases involving undocumented immigrants, with the candidate himself promising, I'll do one thing for illegal immigrants – give them a one-way ticket home. Simultaneously, Trump continues to complicate his relationship with female voters through somewhat paternalistic statements like I will protect women. Indeed, polls show his popularity among women – especially Black women, but women overall – remains particularly low.
Regarding the Jewish vote, crucial especially in Pennsylvania, a survey for Combat Antisemitism Movement showed that 17% of American Jews who previously voted Democratic will vote for Trump this time, citing rising antisemitism. Some 9% will make the opposite switch and vote for Harris. This indicates a meaningful but not dramatic shift toward Trump.
Trump will return home to Florida for the final day, while Harris will arrive in Washington for her closing rally at Howard University, her alma mater. We'll expand more on this choice of a minority-advancement university, but her decision to come to Washington itself is interesting. She could have chosen one of the swing states but opted instead for the center of power and government.
