There is no doubt that what has been happening in Gaza since October 7 is one of the repercussions of miscalculations by Hamas leaders outside Gaza.
These people were accustomed to fighting while relaxing in hotels and watching TV screens from Turkey and Qatar, and they did not realize that adopting a brutal and widespread terrorist plan to attack Israel could cause a major humanitarian catastrophe that might not stop at the Gaza borders.
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Forget the statements of Hamas' Political Bureau Chief Ismail Haniyeh and others who said that they were about to change the map of the Middle East and whatnot.
Hamas' malicious plan was unintentionally revealed by Khaled Mashaal, head of the movement's political bureau, in his statements to the Al Arabiya satellite channel recently, where he said in text: "We have enough captured Israeli soldiers to negotiate over our detainees," adding, "We are only concerned with the Israeli military prisoners. We will exchange our Israeli prisoners for all our prisoners held by Israel."
Mashaal did not mention the previous empty slogans that were chanted loudly, such as liberating land, settling a score, or anything else. All that matters to him and other leaders of terrorist organizations affiliated with Iran is the liberation of their comrades from Israeli prisons.
Mashaal described the attack on Israel as a calculated adventure, adding, "We know very well the consequences of our operation on October 7." An analysis of Hamas' positions since the beginning of the attack shows quite clearly that the brutal attack was not subject to any study, strategic assessment or even consultation with reasonable people trusted by the movement, be they Palestinians or others.
The confusion that befell the movement, the disappearance of its members, and all the blood that spilled due to the expected angry Israeli response to the attack, indicates that Hamas has not prepared for what will come after the attack.
Mashaal says, "History is not made by limited, timid, hesitant steps, but by thoughtful adventures." We say to him, yes, you have made a new history for the victims on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides and the destruction of Gaza. Yes, it killed many Israeli civilians, and the Palestinian people paid a heavy price for what was described as calculated adventures. On top of all that, we do not know of any study carried out by Hamas in its terrorist attack against Israel. There was no study, plan or preparation. The situation involved a brutal crime that disregarded any form of compassion or consideration for the anticipated human suffering resulting from the reckless act, which surpasses the available capabilities.
On the ground, all the evidence clearly indicates that this was a motivated crime, but by no means deliberate, with the main objective of exchanging captives and swapping prisoners.
There was no pursued goal, such as those touted in the slogans sold to the Arab mainstream in the Middle East, like defending Al Aqsa Mosque or Palestinian territories, which many peddle from air-conditioned rooms, leaving innocent people to suffer in the ugliest forms of false pretense, deceit and cause co-optation.
In analyzing the events, we as observers are confronted with certain scenarios and questions, the first of which is that the Hamas movement itself was surprised by the success of the brutal attack in a way that exceeded its expectations. It caused great human losses on the Israeli side, which the movement did not expect, and therefore did not expect an Israeli retaliation with this level of violence and anger.
The second of these scenarios is that the terrorist movement carried out the attack within the framework of an agreement with regional sponsors and that these sponsors, their agents, and their militias intervened to ease the Israeli pressure on the Gaza Strip.
The third of these scenarios is that Hamas leaders ordered the attack to be carried out without preparing a strategy to manage the post-attack scene and its political, security, and strategic repercussions not only on the Palestinians but on all regional parties.
This means that the purpose was limited to how to release the movement's cadres detained by Israel, without developing a full understanding of the conflict scene in the post-attack phase.
It is most likely that Mashaal and his cohorts gave the order to carry out the attack without adequately studying its repercussions after receiving Iranian assurances specifically regarding the intervention of Hezbollah and Iran to save the movement if it was exposed to imminent danger from the Israeli army. What contributed to this was that Israel was not in its best state and internal circumstances and was experiencing an unprecedented state of division and partisan and political turmoil.
Obviously, a leader of a terrorist militia movement has no authority to evaluate the official Arab position or to ask for more political support or anything else. He must understand that the tactics of terrorist organizations are different from the strategies of countries.
States have positions and calculations other than those of organizations and militias. Governments cannot be shielded by their people, nor can their leaders hide in tunnels, as Hamas leaders do, or live in the capitals of other countries. At the end of the day, heads of state are responsible for the security of their people and the interests of their countries, and they cannot risk it all and be dragged into plans and measures devised by a malicious and evil organization or its sponsors and financiers.
We say it openly in the Middle East. There is no time or space for slogans and grandstanding. We cannot leave room for Hamas, Iran, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad to ensnare the Arab region and Israel in more chaos and insecurity.
It is unreasonable to risk the fate of more than two hundred million Arabs as the price for being drawn into a militia plan. Yes, no one can accept what is happening to some two million Palestinians in Gaza. But freeing these people from the clutches of this cycle of violence and bloodshed will not be achieved by expanding the arena of conflict to include regional countries and putting more innocent people at the mercy of such irresponsible positions.
Mashaal acknowledged in his speech that Hezbollah and Iran have provided the movement with weapons and support. He asked for more from them. But he did not talk about Iran's position on what the Palestinians are exposed to in Gaza, except through threats and intimidation, leaving victims to pay a heavy price.
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