Hamas declared war on Israel yesterday. The incendiary firing of rockets at Jerusalem, on Jerusalem Day, was a blatant, insolent provocation that left Israel with no choice but to respond with a harsh counter-blow.
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In this case, the writing was absolutely on the wall. Since the start of Ramadan, Hamas has been systematically building its case on Jerusalem, in an attempt to seize ownership of the unrest. It began by launching rockets at the Gaza envelope communities two weeks ago, and continued with warnings sent last week by Mohammed Deif.
The ultimatum issued by the organization on Monday – the removal of all police officers from the Temple Mount and Sheikh Jarrah – which was backed by the rocket fire, was the climax. By doing so, Hamas sought to heat things up in the city, and also to signal to Israel and the entire region: I make the calls in Jerusalem. Any damage to it will also see a response from Gaza.
This is an equation that Israel cannot live with. Not only because the residents of the Gaza envelope (and beyond) must not be made hostage to Hamas' whims, but because the organization never had nor should have any status or ownership in Jerusalem. Its efforts to become the patron of the Palestinian cause and of Jerusalem – part of which lies in the cancellation of the elections for the Palestinian Authority – are a tangible danger. If left unchecked, they could end up accelerating the organization's attempts to take over the West Bank as well.
Therefore, Hamas leaves Israel no choice but to respond – and to respond disproportionately. The IDF had already wanted to respond forcefully two weeks ago, but was stopped by the political echelon that then preferred the attempts to calm the area, in the hope of getting through Ramadan in peace. Now, all measures are being considered.
The cabinet approved steps of action for the IDF in three main areas: the first, efforts to thwart and disrupt the rocket launches as much as possible; the second, significant damage to Hamas' military arm, its personnel and infrastructure; and third, severe damage to the organization's reinforcement project, which has gained momentum in recent months due to the relative calm in the southern sector. It is also likely that the IDF will seek to harm other organizations in the Gaza Strip (especially Islamic Jihad) along the way too and deprive them of capabilities, although the focus must be on the masters of the Strip: Hamas.
Israel has no choice but to exhaust these three efforts as much as possible. They are likely to last a few days and may also come at a price, but folding quickly will directly harm its deterrence capabilities. At the end of the road, the parties may return to their starting points - and probably also to talks on calm, through Egyptian mediation and Qatari funding - but it's good that Hamas will reach this point weakened and much more deterred than it was last night. The fact that the organization - and so too the Islamic Jihad - dictates the schedules in Israel and determines the heart rate of its citizens is unacceptable.
As always, those who will pay the main price for the expected days of fighting are the residents of the Strip. The escalation catches Gaza at the height of Ramadan, and just before Eid al-Fitr, which will take place on Thursday evening. Hamas is likely to try to close the chapter sooner. For it, the goal (firing at Jerusalem) has already been achieved and chalked up in its name, and now it will be happy to let the residents of the Strip celebrate. Of course, messages in this spirit are already being conveyed by a variety of mediators, but Israel has no intention of responding to them at this stage, until the equation is balanced and deterrence is restored.
This will require Israel to make some efforts, not all of which are operational. On the military front, the IDF and the GSS will also be required to try and hit quality targets (although it can be assumed that most of them have already gone into hiding) and also maintain a strong defense in the Gaza envelope to deprive Hamas of further achievements. Citizens must also show discipline: it is doubtful that the miracle that happened to a citizen who got out of his vehicle seconds before an anti-tank missile was fired at him - will be repeated again, and there is no reason for civilian recklessness to take an unnecessary toll on human life.
On the diplomatic front, Israel will be required to engage in dialogue with the United States and other countries in the West and in the region in order to legitimize the expected activity. The pressures exerted in recent days, mainly from Washington, were the result of abandoning the PR arena to the Palestinian narrative, which planted a false sense that al-Aqsa was in danger. Israel must regain its initiative in the field, and in particular, clarify who is responsible for the violence - in Jerusalem and in the south.
But alongside the aggression that the IDF will take against Hamas in Gaza, the police will be required to take a more intelligent approach in Jerusalem. Most security officials warned on Sunday that the "flag parade" that was supposed to go through the Damascus Gate was a recipe for disaster, which could and should be prevented. The IDF Chief of Staff and the head of the GSS wanted to avoid what was perceived by the Palestinians as a provocation, but the police insisted, and folded only yesterday - under the guidance of the political echelon. The result was bad; Israel capitulated and diverted the parade to the Jaffa Gate, but also paid the price of rockets (which led to the cancellation of the entire parade).
It is likely that in the coming days the prime minister and the minister of defense will keep their hands on the steering wheel in Jerusalem as well. On the one hand, the police will be required to demonstrate determination in the face of any violence. On the other hand, it will try to allow Ramadan to come to an end without matters in the capital getting out of hand. This will require gentle direction, which will also be affected by what happens in Gaza. The Israeli effort will be to divide the sectors - to fight Gaza and keep Jerusalem as quiet as possible - and to prevent the violence from flowing to Israeli Arab towns, Judea and Samaria and the northern arena.
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It was this multi-arena effort that led to the decision to suspend the General Staff's exercise that began at the beginning of the week. This is another achievement of Hamas. Instead of the IDF preparing for war in its main arena - the northern one, against Hezbollah - it finds itself in a quarrel in Gaza. Although the Palestinian arena was part of (albeit secondary) the General Staff exercise, the IDF would do well to take advantage of the events to find out if and to what extent it is indeed prepared for multi-arena fighting.
Also, the IDF would do well to examine the intelligence assessments it has issued in recent weeks. The claim that Hamas is deterred and will try to ignite Jerusalem while maintaining calm in the Gaza Strip has been proven wrong, and may have led to incorrect actions. Now, Israel is required to recalculate its route, at a much higher price, in order to take its hold on the reins.
