As an observer of the events, I find that Hamas's invasion of several Israeli towns, while noteworthy, pales in importance compared to the rationale behind its adoption of heinous tactics that mirror those used by ISIS. I tried to answer the central question of why Hamas adopted this bloody strategy that reminds us of ISIS. The answer is twofold: First, to create a deep psychological shock wave that will entail a huge cost on both sides, thus forcing Israel to carry out retaliatory operations and sparking a state of creative chaos that is psychologically, economically, and militarily consuming.
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Second, while Hamas presents the Palestinian people in Gaza as its scapegoat, it seeks refuge inside the tunnels to wait for its rewards. Reports indicate that Hamas sought to conduct hostage negotiations with Israel through an Egyptian mediator, which implies that it is presenting the hostages as a symbol of its strength, and suggests its willingness to eventually cease operations, albeit a time-consuming process. However, these events only scratch the surface of a larger, hidden agenda.
Amidst the turmoil and distressing events that have captivated global attention, a lurking malevolence emerges – the involvement of Iran. The actions of Hamas are, in essence, a thinly veiled smokescreen aimed at diverting attention from a more extensive series of impending operations. These operations include opening additional fronts after sapping Israel psychologically and militarily within the Gaza Strip.
This serves the dual purpose of detracting global focus from Iranian maneuverings along Israel's borders. Initiating multiple combat fronts against Israel concurrently is a meticulously rehearsed scenario, accompanied by an evaluation of Israel's response strategies. Israel's reliance on established rules of warfare, coupled with the international and regional response to its actions as a recognized state, contrasts starkly with the unbounded operational latitude of terrorist organizations, which are unencumbered by international legal constraints.
It is clear and obvious that in the midst of the psychological shock and the scope of painful events that everyone is looking at, there is a Leviathan monster moving in this chaos. It is Iran for sure, and what Hamas has done is nothing but a clear smokescreen operation to cover up many and larger upcoming operations that include opening other fronts after exhausting the situation for the Israeli side psychologically and militarily in the Gaza Strip, and distracting attention from Iranian movements close to its borders.
Opening several combat fronts against Israel at the same time is a scenario that was rehearsed and the Israeli side's reaction to it was tested. The laws of war that Israel abides by to respond to such a scenario were studied, in addition to the international and regional reaction to the Israeli side as it represents a recognized state in the international system, while lawless terrorist organizations are not obligated to follow any international norms.
News in the media indicated support for Iran's proxies in the hijacked Arab capitals, such as Baghdad and Beirut, for making direct threats to Israel and America in particular if it intervened to support Israel. This is a common media matter that is brought up from time to time, but the question remains: Is the United States of America prepared to strike targets in the Middle East forcefully to defend Israel, or will it merely wave the stick, show force, yet commit to restraint?
The Iranian side certainly has a lot of desire to take revenge on Israel as a result of the intelligence and military operations carried out by Israel deep inside Iran, in addition to the continuous strikes by Israeli air forces on suspicious targets on Syrian territory to prevent Iran from smuggling weapons or approaching the Israeli border. Syria is an important strategic depth for Israel, and Iran's presence near its borders is a dangerous matter in itself. We should not forget the important and strategic matter, which is the major deal being negotiated by Israel with the Saudi side.
The normalization process will lead to scenarios in which Iran does not accept a change in the geostrategic position, and will not allow Saudi Arabia to be an important player in the holy places in Jerusalem. Iran sees itself as responsible for Jerusalem, and if it loses the Jerusalem file, it loses a large part of the image in which it nourishes its followers. But according to the current vision, Israel is not ready to give up normalization with Saudi Arabia because it believes that the economic, political, and social impact of the matter will be greatly influential and will eliminate, or at least reduce, the roles of other players, and introduce a player who possesses new tools, which will have a different concept and character in the political game and in the peace process in the Middle East.
As for what is expected, there is no doubt that the current events will be bloody and painful for everyone. They may develop into a scenario in which the many-headed monster is breathing fire in the Middle East region. There will be many victims, many losses, and many sacrifices. However, it is certain that this is a temporary period that involves a lot of caution and risk and requires making a wise decision.
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