Three months have passed since the most recent federal elections, and Germany still does not have a government. This type of situation is becoming the norm in Western Europe: Belgium, Holland and Spain have been running for months without elected governments because the victorious political camps lack clear majorities and therefore cannot form coalitions. This sets a problematic precedent for Germany; the lack of political stability arouses memories – which are still unwarranted – of the stormy Weimar Republic era, which ended in the ascension of the Nazis to power in the hopes of imposing a new order.
This week could carry dramatic significance for the political future of Germany: On Sunday, the Social Democratic Party relaunched negotiations to form a government. The first round of coalition talks between election winner Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union and the Greens and liberals failed. Merkel was left with three choices: Form a minority government, go to new elections or retry forming a broad coalition with the social democrats, similar to the coalition she headed eight of the past 12 years. On the surface, the last option seemed the most likely to preserve stability in Germany and Europe, mainly in light of the populist Right's growing clout. However, these broad coalitions are perceived as a primary factor that facilitated the populist Right's ascension in the first place as the third-largest party in the Bundestag today.
Merkel's broad coalitions have led her to adopt and implement policies more consonant with the social democrats than her own party's original platform. The blurring of ideological lines, highlighted by the refugee crisis, drove voters from the two largest parties to those viewed as extremist or as "passing trends." Case in point, over a million and a half traditionally left-leaning voters instead cast their ballots for the populist right-wing Alternative for Germany party. The leaders of the social democrats and conservatives are painfully aware that renewing a broad coalition could increase the public's revulsion of both centrist parties and play in to the hands of those presenting themselves as "fighters against the political establishment," from Left and Right. Not to mention, a broad centrist coalition means the Alternative for Germany Party will spearhead the Opposition in the Bundestag.
Many social democrats and conservatives, meanwhile, are also strongly opposed to forming another partnership. The Social Democratic Party, headed by Martin Schulz, vowed after the elections to reject another broad coalition and have already had to backtrack from that promise. Even if this recalibration is intended to project statesmanship inwardly and outwardly, it further eroded the public's faith in "establishment" politicians. While relaunching coalition talks with the social democrats is a symbolic gesture on Merkel's part, a successful outcome is still far from assured.
The two sides are diametrically opposed on several issues: the future of refugee absorption policies, namely the matter of family unification currently on the docket – some 400,000 Syrian refugees this year can bring their relatives to Germany if the policy doesn't change; the future of the European Union; lowering and abolishing certain taxes. Although these initial talks have created a positive atmosphere, it stands to reason that when their deadline expires – this weekend – an agreement will still be forthcoming and that these negotiations, too, will have amounted to nothing. If a coalition agreement is in fact reached, it will only be a temporary tactical alliance between two rival partners certain to squabble with one another. Under such circumstances, this broad coalition's days will likely be numbered.
The person who will pay the price for the failure or success of these coalition talks is Merkel. There is a sense of growing rebellion within her party's ranks, despite the lack of an heir apparent. Recently published polls show that many Germans (47%) believe the chancellor must resign the leadership of the Christian Democratic Union if new elections are declared. Her popularity, which reached heights that were unprecedented in the history of modern Germany, is dropping precipitously. Merkel has always shown an ability to escape difficult situations, but this time her political journey appears to have hit a dead end.
