David Baron

David Baron is Israel Hayom's foreign editor.

Gaza war exposed Russia's true colors

Is it possible that Moscow had a vested interest in this mega-escalation?

 

Dramatic events such as the horrific attack perpetrated by Hamas over the weekend have a tendency to reveal the true nature of relationships by taking off the masks. That is because reality gets upended and people face no choice but to take a clear stand; this reveals the deep motivation that drives actors and even the historical motivations at play. 

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The West's leaders have expressed total solidarity with Israel and come out against Hamas since the attack began. This includes the US, the EU, the UK, France, Canada, Australia, Germany, Austria, Poland, Hungary, and Bulgaria. In Ukraine, which has been fighting the most difficult war in its history, Israeli flags have been projected on dozens of screens. A document published by the Foreign Ministry mentions 82 countries that have unequivocally taken Israel's side in this war. 

All this stands in stark contrast to the official – and outrageous – stance expressed by Moscow. Ever since the attack took place, Russia has assumed a neutral posture, which has been manifested through its calls for a ceasefire that would have taken place practically before Israeli planes had a chance to fly its first bombing sortie. According to independent Russian journalists, the coverage in Russia has followed a similar line, trying to strike a middle ground at best. But this began to change on Saturday. 

As Israeli casualties mounted, former President Dmitry Medvedev (and currently the deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia) found the culprit: the US. "The start of the hostilities between Hamas and Israel, 50 years after the Yom Kippur War, was expected; the conflict has been going on for decades and the US is a key player there. One could have easily dismissed these comments if it weren't for the fact that two days later it turned out that diverting attention to the US – rather than condemning Hamas and showing solidarity with Israel – is actually the predominant stance among Russian policymakers. For example, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed "deep concern over the deaths of hundreds of Israelis and Palestinians' and stated that "taking women and children hostage by both sides [!] is unacceptable," but then went on to blame the US for trying to avoid the establishment of a Palestinian state and undermining the efforts to resolve the problems between Israel and Gaza. 

Eventually, three days after the horrendous massacre, President Vladimir Putin himself articulated the stance. "I think that many people will agree with me that this is a vivid example of the failure of US policy in the Middle East," Putin said. "Washington had sought to monopolize efforts at forging peace and failed to seek workable compromises. The US had ignored the interests of Palestinians, including their need for their own independent Palestinian state." There was not a single word of solidarity with Israel, nor was there mention of its right to defend itself or any condemnation of Hamas' atrocities. 

That Russia wants to drive home this narrative is hardly a coincidence. For years – and more so since its unsuccessful blitz on Ukraine – it has tried to cast itself as the antithesis of the West; as an alternative in a multi-polar world that it seeks to establish as part of its neo-imperialist project. But in pursuing this project, it has been worked with great fervor to bring back from the dead the pro-Arab Soviet positions. For example, Igor Molotov, a pundit in the Russian outlet RT, wrote that "Palestine's victory in the occupied territories is also a victory for Moscow and Minsk (the column was published in one of the mouthpieces affiliated with the regime of Belarus' Aleksandr Lukashenko, Minskaya Prauda, but it was later taken down). 

Dmitry Steshin, who writes for Komsomolskaya Pravda – a paper that Putin particularly likes – even uploaded a video clip showing people fleeing from Hamas at the music festival, adding with a mocking tone that people should not have even "a drop of pity or sympathy [for them]."

Although there is no indication of Russia providing arms to Hamas (after all, Russia is the one that has been panhandling North Korea for arms), its strong alliance with Iran and the supposedly neutral language used to describe the recent attack legitimize Hamas' actions. It hasn't hurt that the organization's leaders held two visits to Moscow over the past year. 

Is it possible that Moscow had a vested interest in this mega-escalation? Just like the Belarus-Poland border two years ago and over the past six months; just like in Moldova during the war in Ukraine; and just like in the Donbas in 2014 or earlier in South Ossetia and Abkhazia – Russia is creating pockets of instability in order to advance its own interests. This time, its interests are abundantly clear: diverting attention from what is happening in Ukraine, and more importantly – having Western weaponry arrive in Israel should things truly escalate. If it's needed in Israel, where won't it go? You guessed correctly – Ukraine. Even Lavrov said something along those lines on the official Russian outlet TASS, essentially saying that if the battlefield in Ukraine had fewer Western weapon systems, Russia's objectives would be met faster.

Israel, whether it likes it or not, now finds itself in the same boat as Ukraine. This begs the question: Perhaps it would be wiser to show a little less neutrality toward the Kremlin. Perhaps we should not accept invitations to the buffet at the embassy every time? Or perhaps renege on the deal that paves the way for the opening of a Russian Embassy branch office in Jerusalem or the agreement on movie productions. True, Russia has not attacked Israel directly, but it is hardly a coincidence that it is not on the list of 82 countries that have condemned Hamas. 

Putin has sought to bring back the old Soviet Union days; perhaps Jerusalem should take note of what place he gives Israel in that old-new world. 

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