From its first hour in office, the new government has needed to handle major security and defense issues.
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Our enemies are keeping a close eye on what is unfolding in Israel, and we all remember Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's remarks about the Israeli leadership during the 2006 Second Lebanon War.
As far as they are concerned, a quiet period and a new government could be seen as a military opportunity. We just finished a round of fighting with Gaza, without any long-term agreement, and the Egyptian mediator, as well as the Americans, are waiting for the new government to put together the outlines of a truce that will make long-term calm on the Gaza front possible.
There are a few issues that require an immediate solution; a comprehensive policy on Gaza, with the question of the money from Qatar at the top of the list. The mechanism by this the Qatari money flows into Gaza and buys us comparative quiet was facilitated with support from outgoing Mossad head Yossi Cohen who admitted on live TV that it was a mistake. The question is whether the new government will be able to put together a new Gaza policy in a few days, one that does not include Qatari money, and what – if any – options there are for this issue
As for Israel's captive fallen soldiers and live civilians, the latest Gaza operation has created a window of opportunity to bring them home. It is a question of how much Israel is willing to pay to see that happen – any truce would entail concessions that will cause a political storm and test the government's unity and leadership.
In addition, Israel needs a complete plan for the rehabilitation of Gaza that includes not only rebuilding homes and institutions destroyed in the fighting, but also a policy about the future of Gaza – diplomatic, social, and economic. The military aspect of the policy must include a clear military response to any Hamas provocation. Meanwhile, the strategic Palestinian issue remains with us constantly, and at this stage we must not delude ourselves that the new government will provide any tactical solutions to it.
It is important for Israel to try and bolster the Palestinian Authority against Hamas, and strengthen security cooperation with the PA, which entails weakening Hams and trying to enlist the PA into any truce deal between Israel and Gaza. The broader Palestinian issue will have to wait until later.
In more distant arena, the nuclear talks between Iran and the signatories to the 2015 deal, with the US in the background, continue on and off. The Iranians are holding to a hard line and, in violation of the deal, are working to develop a nuclear bomb. Israel has thus far decided to object to any renewal of the deal. The Biden administration is waiting for an Israeli decision that will directly influence its next steps on Iran.
To the North, Lebanon, Hezbollah, and Syria – as well as the Iranian entrenchment in their territory – are very volatile issues that need to be addressed right away. Defense Minister Benny Gantz will be the person to whom the baton of responsibility is passed, and he will therefore become the most important person on the Diplomatic-Security Cabinet in the near future.
To sum up, I wouldn't recommend that our enemies try testing Israel's defense prowess at this time. The defense establishment is stable and strong, and based on wonderful people whom we can trust.
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