Defense Minister Yoav Gallant departed Saturday for a short visit to Washington. This will be one of the most important and challenging visits an Israeli senior official has made to the American capital in recent years, with Gallant facing a particularly difficult challenge: to buy Israel legitimacy and time to continue the war in Gaza.
Gallant is perceived by the administration as a positive figure in the government, and as someone whom they can work with. Therefore, he will be welcomed in Washington with open arms, and it is likely that he will hold meetings that are not mentioned in the official itinerary. The embrace will be confusing: The warmth and closeness will be accompanied by much criticism and concern, especially from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who is emerging as the most critical figure in the administration towards Israel.
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American criticism focuses on two interrelated issues: one, the demand to increase humanitarian aid; the second, questions about the future of the Strip after the war. On both of these issues, Gallant is seen as pragmatic, and he is also bringing along the coordinator of government activities in the territories on the trip to present to the Americans what is being carried out and what is planned in terms of humanitarian efforts and addressing the needs of the civilian population.
Senior administration officials will certainly reiterate their demand that Israel refrain from operating in Rafah, following remarks made by Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his visit to the country. It is likely that they will hear from Gallant similar things to what Blinken heard in Israel: that this operation is essential to complete the defeat of Hamas forces and uproot its rule. However, in the more intimate parts of the discussions – in Israel and the US. – the parties are talking about different ways to carry out the operation so that both can live with it.
Four additional key issues will arise during the visit, each critical in its own right. The first is the affairs of the West Bank. The administration is very concerned about the possibility of a widespread outbreak of violence in the West Bank and is pressing Israel to take steps that will ease conditions for the civilian population not involved in terrorism. Gallant supports such moves, mainly in the form of a measured entry of Palestinian workers into Israel.
The second issue is the northern arena. Gallant is considered the most extreme voice in the government regarding the need to expand the military campaign in Lebanon, in order to ensure that Hezbollah is pushed away from the border. Israel is indeed giving time and maneuvering room to the mediation efforts led by the American envoy Amos Hochstein, but Gallant will certainly try to reach an understanding on the scope of action (and scope of American support) that will be given to Israel if these contacts were to fail.
The third issue, and perhaps the most critical, is security assistance. In recent weeks, calls have increased in the U.S. for the administration to limit arms transfers to Israel. Senior administration officials have indeed made it clear that this is not on the table - but the concern in Israel is greater than ever, and Gallant will seek assurances that aid will continue regardless of the political dispute between the countries, and even be increased if a broader campaign develops in the north.
The fourth issue is the broader regional campaign, led by Iran. Israel is indeed focused on Gaza and Lebanon but is very concerned about what is happening on other fronts – Syria, Iraq, and Yemen – with the common thread being Iran. Gallant will try to push the Americans to increase pressure on Tehran (also to rein in Hezbollah), although the chances of the Biden administration risking a confrontation with Iran in an election year are very low.
The visit will be almost entirely security-related, but it will be difficult to escape the political shadow that will accompany it. Exactly one year has passed since Gallant's speech that led to his firing (which was rescinded) by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in which he warned that Israel was marching towards a security abyss (which did indeed materialize). Since then, the two have grown even further apart, and it seems that the only thing they share now is the intention to continue the war.
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