Unlike previous Israeli elections, when voters faced meaningful choices with long-term security implications, in this election, the government and centrist opposition are conveying essentially the same message. If a new government were to replace the Likud-led coalition, the current security and foreign policies would remain in place.
Any incoming government would seek to maintain a warm relationship with the U.S. and would work to retain the delicate balance with Russia and strengthen burgeoning ties with India, China, Latin America, and Eastern Europe. Covert relations with Arab states would continue to be pursued. Relations with most European countries would remain cordial but tense, given their support for anti-Israel organizations.
The policy toward the Palestinians would also remain unchanged. Most Israeli Jews would support separation from the Palestinians, reject further territorial concessions until we have a peace partner and oppose the creation of a new terrorist state.
Any incoming government would invest in strengthening the IDF and would keep confronting Iran if it continued creating bases in the region from which to attack us. And, like now, settlement expansion outside the major blocs would be minimal.
Over the past two years, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's performance in terms of both diplomacy and defense has been exceptional.
Yet there is pressure for him to stand down for several reasons:
- He is expected to be indicted on corruption charges (though many of his followers have become so inured to the constant stream of allegations against him and his wife that they no longer take the issue seriously).
- He has failed to groom a successor and derides potential leaders.
- He has undermined the importance of cabinet responsibility by personally holding onto an unprecedented number of ministerial positions.
- He has already served four terms as prime minister, and the probable indictment would divert him from concentrating on the challenges facing the country.
Netanyahu faces a new political challenge in Benny Gantz, the former military chief of staff and founder of the Israel Resilience Party. Gantz was initially accused by Likud spokesmen of being left-wing but he has made great efforts to distance himself from the Left. He has partnered with Moshe Ya'alon, another former chief of staff (and former defense minister) whom nobody could accuse of being a leftist.
In his opening campaign speech, Gantz undertook to bolster existing settlement blocs and pledged that Jerusalem would remain Israel's undivided capital and that Israel's eastern security border would remain the Jordan Valley. He declined Tzipi Livni's offer to join him but did not rule out the possibility of serving in a Netanyahu government.
Polls indicate that Israel Resilience could win a substantial 24 seats. If it were to run together with Yesh Atid, the combined parties would represent a formidable threat to Likud, which is anticipated to get about 30 seats.
Under these circumstances, Netanyahu would be obliged to overcome his personal antipathy for Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked and join forces with their new party, the New Right.
Many share the hope that the smaller parties will disappear and four main blocs will emerge – the Center-Right headed by Netanyahu, the Center led by Gantz, the haredim and the Arabs.
The Left has become marginal and even the Labor party, which was dominant from the 1930s to 1977, may be eliminated.
If events move in this direction, the election would become a personality contest between Netanyahu and Gantz. Netanyahu would surely win because even many who detest him concede his impressive track record and are apprehensive about empowering an unproven leader.
But Netanyahu cannot take the future for granted. The primaries elected the best team Likud has had for a long time. Despite desperate efforts, Netanyahu's bête noire, Gideon Sa'ar, whom he considers a threat to his leadership, finished fourth in the primaries.
Netanyahu is aware that, in addition to handling the indictments facing him and satisfying his own party members, he would also be obliged to provide concessions to Bennett and the haredim, and maybe additional small parties on the Right.
Thankfully, on the crucial issues there is a broad consensus – with the exception of the fringe far Left, the New Right and the Israeli Arabs.
The New Right seeks to annex all the territories, but the vast majority of Israelis would vigorously oppose an action that would transform Israel from a Jewish state into, at best, a binational state.
At this point, it is impossible to predict the election's outcome. Does it really matter for whom you vote? Not in terms of policies. But most Israelis share the hope that we elect a seasoned leader. Who, of the potential incumbents, could fill Netanyahu's shoes? As of this moment, most of us recognize that, like Netanyahu or despise him, no one comes close.
Many Israelis prefer a Likud-led government that includes Israel Resilience and Yesh Atid. The haredim and the New Right would be given the option to join but denied the opportunity to extort. Such an outcome is improbable but would satisfy the majority and represent Israel's best interests.
