Turkish voters are going to the polls on Sunday to determine whether they want to keep incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan after two decades in power or to give the Opposition, led by CHP (The Republican People's Party) and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu a chance to be at the helm. According to one of the most recent polls, the challenger is leading Erdogan 49.3% to 43.7%. But these numbers don't take into account the drama that unfolded on Thursday when the secular candidate Muharrem Ince pulled out of the race. It is likely that the 2.2% of the vote that was expected to go to him will now boost Kılıçdaroğlu, although Ince has still refused to publicly endorse the Opposition. If he were to do that, Kılıçdaroğlu could have a real shot at crossing the necessary 50% threshold in the first round of voting.
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But Erdogan's downfall is not a done deal, even if he loses. Considering his total grip over the country's institutions – the judiciary, the military, the intelligence services, the police, the presidential guards (also known as the "Reinforcements), and other militias – not everyone thinks he will simply walk into the sunset if the election doesn't go his way.
The abovementioned poll shows that despite the Opposition having momentum, most Turks still believe that Erdogan will stay on as president after the election through some mechanism.
Let's also not forget that during the local elections in 2019, Erdogan refused to accept the results. After it transpired that his candidates had lost big, he had no qualms in using the state news outlet Anadolu Agency to prevent the publication of the returns for a full 13 hours. This allowed him to lay the groundwork to appeal the results.
As a result, even the judges on the Supreme Election Council caved in and announced a do-over. Ekrem İmamoğlu, who defeated Erdogan's candidate in the Istanbul mayorship race, ultimately won again in the rematch (with an even bigger margin), and only then did Erdogan concede.
The elections Sunday are not for the Istanbul City Hall but for president and the legislative branch. For Erdogan, it seems, defeat is not an option. His close associates see this the same way. Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu ironically noted that he already sees the likely results as a "political coup attempt" that is against "the people's will".
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