A nightmarish week – which began with a New York Times report exposing Donald Trump's alleged tax evasion and continued with his aggressive performance at the first televised presidential debate – culminated abruptly on Thursday night with a presidential tweet revealing that Trump – who from the outset downplayed the dangers posed by the coronavirus and mocked his rival Joe Biden for wearing a protective mask – is not immune to the global virus.
Not only did this turn of events revert the public discourse, in one fell swoop, to the coronavirus, which the White Hous has failed at combatting, but it created a thick fog of uncertainty over Trump's condition and what it could mean. This, a mere four weeks before Americans cast their ballots.
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In the immediate context of his presidential campaign, it's clear that Trump's hospitalization and quarantine will prevent him from appearing at large rallies he had planned in several key states in the weeks ahead. The second televised debate, which was supposed to take place on October 15, is also in danger of being canceled.
In other words, Trump's election campaign could sputter to a halt now, of all times, with his back against the wall and polls showing a clear lead for Biden. Second, the president's illness kindles an array of legal issues, which he would rather not have to contemplate at this juncture. Particularly considering his efforts to illustrate that Biden is the one with medical issues, largely stemming from his advanced age and cognitive state. Either way, amid the reports that his health could possibly deteriorate, and due to the fact that his doctors opted to hospitalize him, three primary scenarios are now in play.
The first pertains to his ability to continue functioning as president, without having to pass the torch to Vice President Mike Pence (similar to the aftermath of the attempted assassination of former president Ronald Reagan in March 1981, in which Reagan was able to remain president despite being hospitalized and undergoing surgery).
The second scenario, which is also plausible, entails the president voluntarily declaring himself temporarily incapacitated. This process begins with informing the leader of the House of Representatives (the Democrat, Nancy Pelosi), and his vice president, due to his other role as president of the Senate. Upon being informed of the president's decision, Pence would assume the powers of the president. In terms of precedent, both Reagen in 1985, and George W. Bush in 2002 and 2007 declared themselves temporarily incapacitated due to medical procedures. In all three instances, they reassumed office immediately following their procedures and after updating the respective leaders of the House and Senate.
The third scenario, for which there is no precedent, would stem from a president's age, symptoms he has developed, or other pre-existing medical issues. At present, Trump's condition could deteriorate to the point of incapacity. In such a case and upon securing a majority vote in the cabinet, Pence would become the temporary president (for example, if Trump was attached to a respirator).
Obviously, no one should ignore the possibility of one final, apocalyptic scenario, which is Trump's death. In this case, Pence would automatically become president. However, although several past presidents have suffered from serious health issues (Dwight Eisenhower, Lyndon B. Johnson and Reagan) during their time in office, and although some presidents (Franklin Roosevelt and John Kennedy) died before finishing their terms, in none of these cases was an election as imminent. This time is different, and at this stage, we can only outline the possibilities according to their severity. The optimistic case from Trump's perspective is a quick recovery and a positive campaign spin.
All other scenarios are undesirable from the White House's perspective, as even temporary incapacity would be tactically deflating.
After all, Pence becoming president on the eve of elections, and counting on people to vote for him, would be a gigantic gamble even for the most ardent of Republicans. Even though Pence's political and ideological positions are well established (evangelical and conservative), his abilities to lead on the national level (he is the former governor of Indiana) are still rather unproven. Moreover, compared to several of his predecessors – from Walter Mondale (under Jimmy Carter) to Al Gore (under Bill Clinton), to Dick Cheney (under George W. Bush) – Pence's imprint on devising American strategy has been exceedingly limited, not to mention his performance as the country's coronavirus commissioner.
We can only wait and see whether Trump will recover and if by doing so the US can avoid an unprecedented legal, constitutional, and political crisis. Among other aspects, how will early votes for Trump be counted, if Pence becomes the Republican candidate? Based on the optimistic reports from Trump's doctors, it appears this extraordinary array of issues should remain in the abstract, at least for now.
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