The war on the coronavirus is changing shape. Lockdowns that in previous waves of the outbreak proved effective at quickly bringing down morbidity are now having a much slower, more moderate effect. We are now in a war of attrition that will be harder for us to deal with financially, physically, and emotionally.
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In this third lockdown, we are witness to thousands of new infections every day, high rates of positive COVID-19 tests, and a decrease in the age of the seriously ill packing coronavirus wards. This is most likely to do with the spread of the UK virus variant in Israel. According to Health Ministry data, this mutation, known for being far more infectious and possibly more violent, is responsible for between 50-70% of all current confirmed cases.
Fortunately, the scientists at pharmaceutical giant Pfizer have reported that their vaccine is effective against the British variant. Another advantage to both Pfizer's and Moderna's vaccines is the ability to quickly adapt them to any mutation. So that, as with the seasonal flu shot, even if variants against which the vaccine is less effective are discovered, one that is effective against those mutations can be developed.
The mutations' spread requires an expansion of Israel's vaccination campaign. The success of the Israeli public healthcare system's efforts thus far has no doubt had an effect on the morbidity rate. Last Thursday, the Health Ministry published its findings on the efficacy of the vaccine. One week after receiving the second dose, 0.04% of the 715,525 people who were inoculated contracted the coronavirus, and of those infected, just 0.002% required hospitalization. Given the serious morbidity we are now seeing among pregnant women and the increasing number of young people requiring intubation or an extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) machine, the importance and effectiveness of the vaccine and the protection it provides are clear.
Nevertheless, since the efficacy of the vaccine on variants may be below 95%, everyone who can must receive the vaccine. We cannot suffice with the inoculation of just 75% of the population, which is the point where herd immunity is normally achieved. We also expect Pfizer to study a vaccine for children aged 16 and under, who will also require inoculation. In order to succeed at expanding the vaccination campaign, Israel must adapt its outreach efforts to address those who are hesitant to get the vaccine.
The war of attrition on the coronavirus demands we learn how to live alongside the virus, with the understanding that it will be quite some time before we can go back to what we once considered our normal, day-to-day lives. At the same time, the state must invest in the healthcare system, which lacks intensive care beds, inpatient wards, and medical staff. The images we saw last week of hospital directors being forced to kick and scream on TV to have their cries for help and the resources they need heard are unnecessary. It is clear to me that our inability to turn any sick patient away is being taken advantage of. We will rise to any challenge, but we must do it in a way that doesn't harm the quality of care we provide or the resilience of medical staff, who find it very emotionally difficult to deal with the vast number of daily lives lost to this disease.
I know many are disappointed we will not see a quick and clear end to the pandemic. Alongside the emotional and financial price we are all paying for the blow to market activity and the shuttered education system, I believe we can come up with a strategy for exiting the lockdown that will allow us to build new, normal lives alongside COVID-19.
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