The first week of the Ukraine war has brought with it many occurrences that are deserving of the term "unprecedented." A majority of experts failed to predict what would happen. For example, a Russian cyberattack that would paralyze Ukrainian command and control centers and infrastructure was not launched at the outset of the war. Forecasts that the conflict would lead to the first war in human history to be determined through the electronic neutralization of all enemy systems also proved to be false.
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Sanctions, boycotts, and other steps taken at a relatively swift pace to isolate aggressive Russia, by contrast, are certainly unprecedented. It appears that in this context, the West surprised itself for good. Leaders of the free world may have promised to punish Russia if it dared to use force against Ukraine prior to the invasion, but they did not plan the sanctions ultimately imposed on Moscow in advance. The most significant steps aimed at isolating Russia were decided upon without advance preparation, in an almost instinctive response to the injustice transpiring before our eyes. It turns out the shock caused by Russian President Vladimir Putin's brazenness has a power of its own.
The fact that these sanctions are on a scale the likes of which the world has never seen before obligates Israel to raise the demand similar sanctions be imposed on Iran without delay should it continue to make progress toward acquiring nuclear weapons. If in the past, we were told sanctions are ineffective, we can now reply: "You just didn't use the right ones."
The situation emerging in Russia as a result of the invasion and the sanctions is also unprecedented. The Russian public, including the elite class, is in a state of "double shock" from Putin's decision to invade, the purpose of which is unclear to them, and the resulting tailspin. The economy and quality of life in Russia are on the verge of a painful and unprecedented collapse.
When a powerful oligarch such as Oleg Derispaka, who felt the impact of mass US economic sanctions, demands authorities explain who will bear the costs of the war and the resulting sanctions, Putin has cause for concern. If Derispaka is speaking this way in public, one can only imagine the harsh claims being made behind closed doors. It is still too early to assess whether the new situation can provoke tectonic shocks in the giant country, but this possibility must no longer be causally ruled out.
The sharp shift in Russia's international standing designates it a pariah state, which has led a few of its neighbors to take steps that could anger the Russians and that as a result, they had never taken before. The Turks' decision to block Russian naval access to the Dardanelles and Bosporus straits and Finland's decision to provide weapons to Ukraine mark a new era in their treatment of Russia. The Turkish move has immediate ramifications: In 2019, two-thirds of all warships that passed through these straits belonged to Russia's navy. By preventing Russian warships from sailing there, Turkey has effectively cut Russian naval forces in the Mediterranean Sea off from the Black Sea. The Turks were not deterred, but the Russians have the ability to exact revenge in Syria. The Finnish move is also incredibly symbolic. Ever since it faced Soviet aggression, Finland has always tried to placate the Russians. Now, though, it is challenging them publicly. It seems fear of Putin isn't what it used to be, and that too is unprecedented.
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