It's been known for a while that the 1993 Oslo Accords have long gone from being a left-wing initiative to becoming the right-wing darling. After the initial fright that Oslo would lead to the division of Israeli land, the Right understood that bringing the accords to a halt right there and then would result in the best of both worlds: A majority of the Palestinians concentrated in the 360 square kilometers of the Gaza Strip and the 2,500 square kilometers of Areas A and B in the West Bank; partial autonomy for the Palestinians, but without sovereignty in the West Bank or any interest in sovereignty in Gaza; and freedom of action for the IDF to search for suspects at night. Meanwhile, the settlement enterprise is blooming, security cooperation works and saves Israeli lives, and the world continues to finance the Palestinian Authority to the tune of billions of shekels a year.
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All of the above under the auspices of a diplomatic agreement that the world respects. As long as the sides haven't reached an agreement on a permanent status accord – even though the sides agreed to do just that no later than May 4, 1999 – the interim accords remain in place and Israel can hide behind them and claim that everything it does is under their auspices.
But the interim accords have become a farce. Agreements made under the understanding that they would be short-term are approaching 30 years now and can no longer carry the burden – not of temporary economic solutions, not of temporary diplomatic measures, and not of the exceptionally problematic map. The short-term thinking that the "conflict can be condensed" - reduced or managed - without a clear diplomatic horizon, without a return to the negotiating table free of wrangling over who torpedoed the success of the talks in the past, and without making a supreme effort to reach a final status accord, is an idle thought.
The numbers are crystal clear. There is no Jewish majority west of Jordan, something that should be a nightmare scenario for any Zionist who believes in democracy. The Palestinian Authority can't be strengthened when every night our soldiers search for suspects in their homes, and when the alternative to a diplomatic solution is financial assistance and work permits in Israel "so that they know what they are losing when they are prevented from working in Israel." After many years in which the right-wing thought that the solution lies in cooperation with Hamas and weakening the Palestinian Authority, and after years in which the centrists thought that strengthening the PA's economy could lead to pushing off a diplomatic agreement into the distant future, both schools of thought have hit a wall.
Perhaps Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will be the one to pull the coals out of the fire for us when he makes his annual speech to the United Nations General Assembly about ending the Palestinian commitment to Oslo. Last year, in his address to the assembly, he said that unless Israel withdraws from the West Bank and east Jerusalem, the Palestinians will no longer be committed to recognition of Israel and will call on the International Criminal Court in the Hague to declare Israel's presence in the territories captured in the Six-Day War to be illegal. Since he had made similar statements before, not many took Abbas seriously but given his inability to control parts of the West Bank this time he may make good on his threat.
The government of Yair Lapid will have to respond to any such development, but I fear it may not be adequately prepared. With elections looming, Lapid will be hesitant to enter the diplomatic fray lest he be accused of being left-wing, God forbid. But exercising caution is not a recipe for winning elections. An unequivocal statement that if he is elected prime minister he will finally determine a border between Israel and the Palestinians – be it through an agreement or unilateral measures, and will put an end to the Oslo process – could give him a political advantage. Many Israelis who have lost hope for peace would view this as a crucial statement. It would also speak to many Palestinians who have lost all faith in the possibility of reaching a diplomatic agreement, and it would make the elections a referendum on the need for a solution to save the Zionist enterprise.
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