The Israel Defense Forces had two objectives when it exposed a Hezbollah weapons depot situated across the street from a school in the village of Ebba in southern Lebanon. The first objective was to once again show Hezbollah it has been infiltrated and its actions are transparent to Israel. The second objective was to warn the international, regional, and Lebanese communities of the heavy price Lebanon's civilians will pay in the next war.
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This was not the first time Israel revealed intelligence in an attempt to either directly or indirectly pressure Hezbollah. Jerusalem has done this on more minor issues before, such as with Hezbollah's use of the "Green Without Borders" environmental group's observation posts as a cover for activity on the Lebanese-Israeli border, as well as more serious ones, such as the location of some of the sites used by Hezbollah to convert projectiles into precision-guided missiles.
The IDF's most recent move to expose Hezbollah's weapons depot is a direct continuation of this effort. It is aimed at making Hezbollah search for leakers and fear Israel knows of other, more important secrets. It is also aimed at making residents of the Lebanese village fear and ask questions. While it remains doubtful any of the parents of the 300 students at the school in question will dare to confront Hezbollah, their concerns and fears will be felt by the terrorist group.
As an organization whose basis for power primarily stems from the unwavering support of Lebanon's Shiite population, Hezbollah will surely offer its view on how its actions transform it from a group that protects the population to one that presents a major risk.
It is safe to assume this is not the only weapons depot Hezbollah has stationed next to a civilian population. This is a well-known tactic for the Shiite group as well as other terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip. The idea is simple: Make the dilemma Israel's problem. If Israel attacks these sites, many innocent Lebanese will be killed, something that will lead to sharp international criticism and possibly even accusations of war crimes. If Israel avoids targeting the sites, it will find it difficult to stop the firing of rockets on Israeli communities in what would be a significant achievement for Hezbollah.
In the 15 years that have passed since the Second Lebanon War, the IDF has collected intelligence on thousands of such sites. Maj. Gen. Amir Baram, who heads the IDF's Northern Command has said his command now has 20 more targets in its sights than it did in 2006, with many more targets situated deep inside Lebanon. The Israeli Air Force is prepared to attack thousands of targets each day, in a sign of what the Israeli military has planned for Lebanon and what the Lebanese should expect in the next campaign.
The inevitable result, as the diplomatic-security echelon in Israel has repeatedly warned of late, will be the absolute destruction of villages in southern Lebanon and every other site where Hezbollah stores its weapons. The alternative is for many Israelis to be killed and the war to drag on. However, unlike the last campaign in Gaza, the IDF will not be able to operate inside Lebanon from the air alone. Aerial defense systems are incapable of defending Israel from a barrage of thousands of rockets a day. In order to stop the rocket fire and turn up the pressure on Hezbollah by pushing the population northward, among other things, the IDF will need to enter Lebanon on the ground and capture territory to make it difficult for Lebanon to launch rockets at Israel.
This plan, which was partially implemented in 2006, and even then in a sloppy, delayed manner, has been practiced since with the objective of executing it in the next war in Lebanon. No one in Israel is under any illusions that this will be a walk in the park; On both the front and the Homefront, there will be a heavy price to pay with this war.
Yet as Baram himself said Wednesday, "The next war will be complex for us but intolerable for them." This warning, along with the exposure of the weapons depot, is aimed at exerting domestic Lebanese pressure to rein in Hezbollah and international pressure on what remains of the Lebanese government. Past experience has shown us that Hezbollah will try to blur the lines, roll its eyes, and continue on its path.
Despite all this, the northern border is quiet. On the face of things, there are no signs war is imminent. Hezbollah is restrained, as is Israel and is in over its head with domestic problems. Nevertheless, this is a volatile and dangerous enemy. Israel has therefore been wise to use all the tools at its disposal to deepen deterrence and push back the war.
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