Last week, a cyberattack in Iran paralyzed the government system governing fuel subsidies, causing chaos at some 4,300 gas stations across the country. The attack came on the heels of previous cyberattacks in recent months, which shut down vital services and infrastructure in Iran – from disruptions to traffic lights and train services to water and electric supplies.
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Someone apparently decided to make the already difficult lives of Iranian citizens even more miserable. Although the Islamic republic is a touch away from being able to manufacture a nuclear weapon, it is a poor country struggling to provide food, healthcare, and education to its people. Four decades of failed rule under the ayatollahs have turned Iran into a dangerous enemy to the Arabs and to Israel, but the population has become impoverished and bereft of hope for a better future.
No one assumed responsibility for disabling the gas stations or for the previous attacks in Iran. In Tehran, too, officials were careful not to point a finger at the "usual suspects," although Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said that a country with cyber-capabilities wanted to "make people angry by creating disorder and disruption." The foreign and Israeli press has attributed the cyberattacks to Israel, saying their objective was to apply pressure on the Iranian regime and stall its nuclear progress.
It's unreasonable to assume that fuel disruptions will cause the Iranian regime to think twice about its nuclear adventure. More painful blows it has sustained in recent years failed in this regard. Around a decade ago, the "Stuxnet" computer virus planted in the country's computer systems destroyed Iran's uranium enrichment centrifuges, stalling the ayatollah's nuclear program but not eliminating it.
And yet, these cyberattacks are not without reason and justification, as their goal is to create a balance of terror and deterrence against a radical regime that can only be stopped by force.
If Israel is indeed behind them, it can be viewed as an extension of the so-called "war between wars" the two enemies have been waging for over a decade. This is a cold war that mostly flies under the radar, and is apparently convenient for both parties as it allows them to avoid an all-out confrontation that neither side wants.
The Iranians are not innocent victims. Iranian hackers attack Israel incessantly, occasionally with lethal repercussions. After all, cyber warfare is not a game. It isn't confined to merely causing traffic jams or even ransomware attacks on hospitals. Cyberattacks can be deadly if they target a county's drinking water – as we saw last year when Iranian hackers attempted to poison Israel's water supply – or cause sensitive operating systems and even weapons systems to malfunction, not to mention planes and vehicles in the future.
Israel is clearly superior to Iran in this field. However, similar to the previous stages of the campaign the two countries have been fighting, the Iranians are learning, improving, and will ultimately find an answer. Case in point, Israel has stopped attacking Iranian oil tankers on their way to Syria, after Iran began attacking Israeli-owned ships near its shores. These cyber games, therefore, will continue on a low flame, but ultimately won't be the deciding factor in the ongoing tug of war between Jerusalem and Tehran.
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