Although tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border have eased slightly in the past 48 hours – after President Vladimir expressed a desire to avoid war and pursue diplomatic negotiations – announcing that the crisis is over would be premature. And although we cannot know how the conflict will be resolved, we are able of drawing preliminary conclusions as to its origins.
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Contrary to popular belief, the roots of the current tensions did not arise because the West wanted to bring Ukraine into the NATO and expand cooperation with the country – because it didn't – but from Putin's desire to challenge the very essence and character of the European order, which was formed after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Moscow is taking advantage of US President Joe Biden's weakness, who has repeatedly signaled a desire to disengage from areas of conflict and war.
As such, crushing the sovereignty of the pro-Western regime in Ukraine was seen by Kremlin as a means to intimidate other players in the region – especially Poland and the Baltic states (that are already NATO members) ؘ– not to expand their security ties with Western powers further, and thus direct them to a neutral and political trajectory, similarly to Finland's cautious conduct since 1945.
However, unlike Putin's successful move in 2014 – when he took full advantage of then-President Barack Obama's weakness and annexed the Crimean peninsula and began seeping into eastern Ukraine – in the current crisis, things are different.
Because despite the implicit "green light" Biden has initially given the Russian president, he has since realized that another show of weakness – along with the withdrawal from Afghanistan and his unilateral and early concessions to Iran in the nuclear talks – will not only affect the United States' hegemony and upset the balance of power in Europe, but will also undermine his legacy.
As a result, Biden has in recent days adopted a more combative rhetoric and has also increased activities vis-à-vis Germany, which holds a key tool to changing Putin's calculations of profit and loss.
Works on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which can carry enough natural gas from Russia to fuel 26 million households in Europe, have been completed, but its launch requires a complex and regulatory process that is still being conducted.
There is no doubt that this is an important source of future profit for the Putin regime and its shaky economy, but which has suddenly come into question given Germany Chancellor Olaf Scholz's willingness – despite his initial reluctance – to join deterrence efforts by threatening to shelve the venture entirely if Russia invades Poland.
The entire campaign rests on this powerful lever and has led the Kremlin to recalculate its route and reassess the risks of conducting a large-scale military action in Ukraine in the face of the emerging Western deterrence that is finally led by the US.
If the Kremlin decides to cancel – or postpone – its military plans (in exchange, of course, for a US promise not to bring Ukraine into the NATO and expand strategic involvement in the area), then we will know for a fact that rumors of the end of American hegemony in the region were, after all, premature.
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