The supposed rapprochement between Jordan and Saudi Arabia – if it ever does materialize – is practically a miracle from a historical perspective. Their common "adversary" Turkey is the driving force behind this surprising development. Turkey, which is increasing its real estate holdings, and with it its influence on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem's Old City, is threatening to depose the Jordanians from their role as the custodians over the Muslim holy sites on the Mount.
The Jordanians and Saudis have been dueling for control of the Muslim holy sites for 100 years. Hussein Ibn Ali of the Hashemite family, who was the sharif and emir of Mecca from 1908-1917, was said to be a 37th-generation direct descendant of the Prophet Muhammad. The Hashemite dynasty, which now controls Jordan, ruled Saudi Arabia until 1924 and was kicked out by the House of Saud. Thus, in the wake of World War One, the Hashemites lost their custodianship of Mecca and Medina and have never forgiven the Saudis for it.
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Jordan, which was officially founded in 1946, only controlled east Jerusalem and the Old City between 1948 and 1967. Since its loss of control, Jordan has taken consolation in its role as guardian of the Al-Aqsa Compound on the Temple Mount, the third-holiest site in Islam behind Mecca and Medina.
For years, the Saudis coveted the Temple Mount, but the Jordanians were always able to keep them at bay. Most recently this occurred in relation to the Trump administration's "deal of the century": Jordan's King Abdullah threatened the United States with suspending the peace treaty with Israel if the Americans were to replace the Jordanians with the Saudis as custodians of the Temple Mount. Additionally, Abdullah also rejected the possibility of joint guardianship with the Saudis.
Within the framework of its fight against the "deal of the century", the Jordanian Kingdom even allowed the Waqf to welcome as a member Sheikh Akram Sabri, a senior cleric with direct ties to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Jordan's current about-face allegedly stems from its tardy realization that Erdogan's power in east Jerusalem is growing, including in the Old City and Temple Mount. Jordan, afraid of losing its power to both Saudi Arabia and to Turkey is considering acquiescing to American pressure to cooperate with its historic rival, Saudi Arabia, with its vast fortune, against the new and apparently more dangerous adversary, Turkey.
Ten years since the Mavi Marmara incident, Turkey has become a central player in the fight for east Jerusalem, and funds construction, renovations, and different civil activities in the city. This is not terrorist activity, but it seeks to strengthen ties between east Jerusalem residents and Muslim Brotherhood officials in the city.
The US, Israel, and Jordan perhaps hope that Saudi Arabia and its immense wealth will compete against Turkey's numerous investment endeavors. The Saudis can possibly buy themselves a foothold in Jerusalem, and also allow Jordan to rehabilitate its weakened status in the city in the face of growing Turkish influence. Such a development, if indeed Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Israel forge a common axis on the Temple Mount, would represent yet another layer of peace as envisioned by King Hussein and Yitzhak Rabin 25 years ago: A multi-denominational administration (informal at this stage) for the Temple Mount, holy to Muslims and Jews alike.