For me, like for many of my friends, today is a day to celebrate. Today we will start the clock and the countdown to the end of the coronavirus pandemic. If nothing unexpected happens, as it has a number of times with viral diseases, the disease could be gone in four to six months if most of Israel's population is vaccinated against it. But we can't fall victim to complacence and risk an accident in the final stretch of a long and exhausting journey riddled with obstacles.
Vaccines are without a doubt the medical technology that has had the most impact on life expectancy in the past 100 years. Every year, vaccines save the lives of 3 million people and help many millions of others avoid illness and disability. From the start of the current pandemic, it was clear that only a vaccine would provide a total answer to the outbreak. But the development of a vaccine is a complicated, lengthy, and expensive process. No one, not doctors or scientists, dared to dream that we would have millions of doses of a vaccine that would prevent 95% of serious cases ready this year.
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But the unbelievable came to pass, and we are witnessing a truly wonderful leap forward. Until a few years ago, it took an average of 10 years to develop a new vaccines. But the SARS, avian flu, and swine flu of the previous decade, as well as the fear of a lethal flu pandemic, brought the risks of the new virus to the forefront of our collective consciousness and science, and many resources were diverted into making it possible to rapidly develop a vaccine against a new threat.
These capabilities were honed and improved over the past decade, and they – as well as unprecedented investment in processes of development, trials, and manufacturing in 2020 – allowed for the international effort that resulted in a vaccine that is now accessible to the Israeli public. It is important to stress that this expedited process did not skip the accepted procedures of oversight, but they were conducted simultaneously at a massive financial risk, especially for those manufacturers who weren't able to complete work on their vaccines.
I read the scientific reports about the clinical trials conducted by Pfizer and Moderna; I listened to the public hearing by the FDA; and I am confident that the vaccines are effective. Thus far, there is no indication about any safety issues for the populations on whom the vaccine has been tested (it still hasn't been tried on children or pregnant women, and therefore will not be administered to them). The theoretical risk of a new side effect that could appear months or years after the vaccine is given pales in my mind against the visible danger of the virus that is now once again spreading in Israel and the world. Therefore, I will be getting vaccinated today, and I will do all I can to ensure that those of my family in high-risk groups opt to be vaccinated as soon as possible. I believe that most Israelis will do the same in the next few months, allowing us to hope we can get back to life without restrictions and without the spread of disease.
There is immense hope, but we can't fall into complacency. The virus is now spreading in Europe and in the US, both of which are seeing mortality that is 10 to 20 times that of Israel's. Belgium, a country with a population the size of Israel's, saw 200 or more COVID deaths a day this month. Here, the virus is spreading rapidly, and could cause a deadly winter wave like the ones other western countries are seeing.
We need to stop the outbreak, take personal responsibility for wearing masks, maintaining social distancing, and airing out closed spaces, and implement medical experts' recommendations more readily and determinedly. It will be complicated to stem the tide of the virus, and the next few months will test us. We cannot give in to tiredness or fall asleep at the wheel just when we are almost home.
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