One month into the Ukraine war, one can only surmise what will happen in fighting down the line. The Russian regime's hopes of defeating Ukraine through military force have been dashed. Today, the Russian military is incapable of achieving the objectives set out by Russia's leader, Vladimir Putin.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
In a rational world, this would pave the way for a cessation in fighting and a diplomatic resolution, but in this case, the ceasefire talks are nowhere near a breakthrough.
As Russia's plans stalled and failed on all fronts, anger grew in the Kremlin. There are growing reports that the regime in Moscow has decided not to suffice with the suppression of demonstrations against the war or the ban on the publication of the true number of casualties suffered by Russia's military. Instead, the regime has begun to demand from loyalists to provide explanations for the failure in planning and the failed military and propaganda campaign in Ukraine. Soon, the scapegoats will be found, and they will not be minor military figures.
The shattering of the façade of military strength was a real catastrophe for the Putin regime. An emperor cannot be seen to have no clothes, and each of the 30 days of fighting served to further expose the incredible weakness of the system built in the Putin era, beginning with the lack of motivation of Russian soldiers, through logistical and armament failures, and including the inability to predict the strong opposition they would meet in Ukraine.
Nevertheless, one must not conclude that the failures on the battlefield will lead Russia to come to its senses and expedite a dignified exit from the Ukraine imbroglio. To agree to a peace deal and withdraw his weary forces, Putin will desperately need something he can present to his people as an achievement. The people of Russia will suffer from an acute economic crisis, and the number of casualties sustained by the military will be revealed sooner or later.
Putin does not currently have anything in the ways of achievement that he can show to justify the heavy price his people will pay, and therefore, as he sees it, he has no choice but to continue to fight. In effect, the Russians have fallen into a ditch of their own making. After demanding the Ukrainians recognize their loss of the Crimean Peninsula and the east of the country, they will be hard-pressed to rely on any less of an achievement.
Despite the loss of life and the destruction of their country's infrastructure, the Ukrainians have no reasons to yield to Russia's demands. Their military success has filled them with a fighting spirit. Ever since they discovered the enemy is not as strong as they believed it to be, they have come to understand that they can continue to strike. Last week, the Ukrainian military launched a number of counterstrikes, pushed the Russians back dozens of kilometers from the Kyiv region, and liberated areas that had fallen to the invaders.
Their new status is reflected in a paradoxical statistic: Today, the Ukrainians have more tanks than they did at the outset of the war. They may have lost 100 tanks, but they have captured far more Russian tools. Add to that the ongoing supply of weapons from Western states and you begin to realize why the Ukrainians are convinced continued fighting will ensure them a bright future. They are of course interested in stopping the killing of their citizens, but not at the price of surrender. And Russia's demands are taken to mean just that. Therefore, we should expect to see more of what we saw last month in the coming month. The militaries will continue to fight, and Ukraine will continue to bleed.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
