The recent leaks on senior security officials sounding the alarm on the IDF's declining readiness due to the ongoing political turbulence – especially in the Israeli Air Force, which has seen hundreds of reservists stopping volunteer training – have put Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a bind: Should he continue pursuing judicial reform or seek an off-ramp that would diffuse the situation so that the IDF doesn't become weaker and lose its deterrent power?
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So far Netanyahu has focused mainly on the side effects: He has refused to hold a Diplomatic-Security Cabinet meeting to discuss the matter because he is worried over leaks; he has demanded that the IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and his subordinates stop making public statements on the matter; and there have been efforts – not by Netanyahu himself – to cast aspersions online on the impartiality of national security officials.
But so far none of those tactics have worked. Security officials have conceded that the decline in the IDF combat worthiness will only get worse, and they accuse the protesters of "deciding to save the country by destroying it." There is one major milestone down the road: the High Court of Justice is expected to rule on the constitutionality of the reform measures that have passed – the bills limiting the declaration of incapacity for a prime minister and limiting the ability of courts to nullify government decisions. The way the government reacts to the rulings is as important as the rulings themselves.
Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant have several key tools in their arsenal, and one of them – which could be the most effective but also the most painful – is to convene the commanders of the Israeli Air Force, the IDF chief of staff, and other members of the top brass and to tell them than there will have to be manpower cuts in the IAF due to the reservists' protests.
The resources saved by slashing down the size of the IAF would be used to bolster the understaffed units in other parts of the military. If Netanyahu were to make such a threat, the IAF would likely bend over backward in order to find replacements for the reservists in order to avoid the downsizing.
This would not convince the die-hard protesters who are unwilling to compromise, but it would surely win over some of the less radical reservists – those who have said they would not show up but are not all-out against the government. Such a development would be helped if the chief of staff and the IAF commander go all-in by using their clout to sway the reservists to back down.
Rather than being led, Netanyahu has to lead the Coalition and set the agenda as the Knesset prepares to return from its summer recess. The first thing it needs to do is to choose his battles: continuing the judicial reform or focusing on the conscription law that would cement the military exemption for Haredim. Engaging in a two-front battle, while he tries to go on multiple foreign trips, will not be possible.
People in Netanyahu's circle say that he has been thinking a lot lately about the plan proposed by Professor Alan Dershowitz: Stopping the judicial reform for a year and then creating consensus for drafting a constitution. This is one option to emerge out of the morass. But if Yariv Levin wants to become Netanyahu's right-hand man again, he better do that as part of his role as justice minister.
Another option, which has been floated by Coalition members as well, is to turn the crisis into a tactical opportunity: calling for a national unity government on an emergency basis; legislation by consensus; and stopping the bleeding in the IDF. As a result of an almost unprecedented lack of trust in Israeli politics these days, this is not a highly probable scenario. But if a crisis erupts on national security, this could change.
Netanyahu, it appears, has chosen to focus on the conscription law as his main battle. His Haredi Coalition partners in United Torah Judaism are all but oblivious to the ongoing turbulence on judicial reform and its impact on the military, but it is clear to all players involved that passing the bill in its current language – along the lines proposed by the faction – could lead to many Israelis dodging the draft in protest. Netanyahu, like the other Haredi party Shas, has tried to convince UTJ that it would be best to water down the bill and use the language proposed by former Defense Minister Benny Gantz.
If Netanyahu manages the crises early, he will not have to face the barrage of criticism when the Knesset resumes its legislation in the fall. The bottom line is that he would not be able to go to the White House when he leaves behind Coalition members who continue to advance the judicial reform or the military exemption for Haredim
His whirlwind tour of foreign capitals in the fall will require him to set his house in order well in advance. This is the only way he would be able to seize on diplomatic openings such as normalization with Saudi Arabia (which could rattle the coalition), the US Visa Waiver Program, and above all – preventing a new nuclear deal with Iran.
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