Just 13 months since his inauguration as the 46th president of the United States, Joe Biden now finds himself facing the most fateful challenge of his presidency. This is the moment that, to a large extent, will shape the character and stability of the entire international system, in the wake of Russian President Vladimir Putin's defiance of the existing order in Eastern Europe in general and in Ukraine in particular.
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One thing is already glaringly obvious, however, although it's still uncertain what the Russian ruler's next steps will be following his military encroachment into Donetsk. Indeed, there's no debating that the White House completely failed in its efforts to deter the Kremlin from shattering the status-quo in eastern Ukraine, and wasn't able to prevent Putin from officially recognizing the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as "independent" entities supposedly under his umbrella.
Without a doubt, the White House's feeble, irresolute approach amid the backdrop of its panicked withdrawal from Afghanistan, its unilateral concessions to Iran in Vienna, the decision to retreat from global flashpoints, and to completely rule out the option of military force as a component of its foreign policy, granted Moscow the window of opportunity it desired to implement its historic vision and, similar to 1945, reclaim its official status as a superpower with legitimate interests in parts of eastern and central Europe.
Just as the collapse of the dream to democratize Iraq – which then-US president George W. Bush sought to accomplish through military force in 2003 – encouraged Russia to invade Georgia in 2008 and wrest from it the "rebellious" regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia –Russia's decision to annex Crimea in 2014, followed by the decision to slowly begin the process of encroachment into eastern Europe, was due to the perception that then-US president Barack Obama was weak and untrustworthy (namely because of his conduct in Syria).
It's not surprising, therefore, that Biden's flight from Afghanistan was a catalyst for Putin's belief that the American superpower was now a paper tiger and would also accept another, this time fatal impugnment of the Ukrainian government's sovereign rule – and possibly also sit idly by as Russia eradicates the Ukrainian government by force and turns the country into a submissive satellite state controlled by the "big brother" from Moscow.
As a tangible precedent, this should strike fear into the hearts of the other players in the arena and deter them from tethering their futures to the West. Within the context of this repeating pattern of exploiting the American hegemon's weakness, to gradually undermine the international system that took shape following the fall of the former Soviet Union in 1991, Biden now faces his moment of truth.
To be sure, if he suffices with imposing the same flimsy economic sanctions that have already been imposed on the separatist regions of eastern Ukraine, he will essentially be signaling to Putin that he has a clear path and green light to swallow Ukrainian whole.
On this path, Moscow will recapture some of the territorial assets it lost in the not-so-distant past. On the other hand, if the American president manages to rally his main NATO partners (some of which are still undecided over the necessary response) around massive and painful punitive economic measures – including disconnecting Russia from international banking and financial systems, freezing the Nord Stream 2 natural gas initiative (with the explicit support of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, which he granted Tuesday), and an export ban that would deny Russia US high tech for its industries and military – there's a chance to turn the tide.
Firmly established perceptions do not disappear overnight, hence the White House's mission of proving credible commitment and courageous leadership is a difficult one. This is still possible, however, before Ukraine – and by extension, the entire international system and of course the fate of Biden's presidency – crosses the Rubicon.
In light of Biden's anemic speech to the American people on Tuesday, the task before him appears even more implausible as the sanctions he declared are merely partial and limited and light-years from representing a comprehensive economic boycott and mortal blow to Russia's sputtering banking and economic systems – and thus aren't likely to bear fruit.
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