One could hear the sigh of relief across many of Europe's capitals with the news Democratic President-elect Joe Biden had won the US election. To them, the last four years have been rife with tension, fighting, threats, insults, and punishments at the hand of the man at the head of Europe's greatest ally.
US President Donald Trump has developed close personal ties with French President Emmanuel Macron and right-wing government heads across Europe. But it is his disparaging treatment of the European Union and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, his overt support for nationalist parties across the EU (who for their part supported him as well), his demand members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization increase their defense spending, his plans to pull American soldiers from Germany and Europe in general, his withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement, as well as a series of international and militaristic organizations, along with his unclear relationship with Russian President Vladmir Putin that have all made Trump's presidency something of a traumatic experience for European foreign policy makers.
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Biden's entry into the White House will relieve some of the tensions between the two poles of the transatlantic alliance. Biden, a representative of the Washington establishment, has over the span of decades developed good ties with many of the various European capital's decision-makers. The Europeans can hope for a change in approach and style, as well as a return to the comfort zone of warm and friendly relations. But there is no doubt that the situation that has prevailed between Washington and Brussels, Berlin, and Paris prior to Trump will not be restored.
The expectation is that on many issues, a Biden president will continue Trump's policies on Europe for no other reason than they genuinely serve US interests. For a president tasked with dealing the difficult economic repercussions of the coronavirus pandemic, and who is on shaky ground to begin with, it would be extremely difficult to explain why there would be an about-face on the matter.
Biden has promised to bring the US back into the Paris climate accord, winning over not only the hearts of Europeans but also a significant portion of his voter base. Although, since he will also need to please the US working class, it is doubtful he will once again open US borders up to European exports, in particular those that compete with US products. He is expected to cancel the withdrawal of US troops from Germany, while continuing to insist the Europeans pay more for their security and defense.
Trump bolstered the Western defensive alignment against Russia on European soil during his tenure. The upgrading of the Russian military over the last decade will require Biden to carry on down this path. The Europeans are hoping for a détente in Washington-Tehran ties, in particular regarding the Iran nuclear deal. Yet here, a situation has arisen that will make it very hard for Biden to meet Tehran half-way.
Just four years remain to the end of the first timeframe of the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action signed with Iran, and the Iranians have already violated the accord in the most blatant of manners. The threat they present to Middle East stability is not just theoretical but plain for all to see. Even in the European capitals that signed on to the deal, there are those now publicly admitting the accord has been a failure.
Of course, there is also the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. On this matter, unfortunately, Biden will allow the Europeans and the Americans to revert to the old way of thinking that for decades prevented any progress in the way of Middle East peace, with both sides rushing to prop up the "two-state solution" formula, support the Palestinian Authority, fund organizations that perpetuate the conflict such as UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, and see in the settlement enterprise in Judea, Samaria, and Jerusalem the sole obstacle to progress toward an agreement. However, pro-Israeli governments in certain European capitals may nevertheless succeed in withstanding the onslaught, at least as far as blocking wild initiatives by the EU is concerned.
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