President Joe Biden's first 100 days in office will end later this month. His actions so far have been defined by intense efforts on domestic issues, enjoying the tailwind in public support and utilizing the de-facto majorities the Democrats have in both chambers of Congress. He has laid the groundwork for an "Infrastructure New Deal."
His main focus over the past several months has been with the two-trillion dollar stimulus package to help those who have been adversely affected by the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, hoping this would lead to a new growth spurt. He has also recently introduced a new package totaling some 2.3 trillion dollars to upgrade America's physical infrastructure (bridges, roads and so forth) in a way that would connect the power centers to the far-flung communities that have been left behind technologically, politically and economically.
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These dramatic initiatives are the crown jewel of his first three months, alongside the signing of some 50 executive orders, the acceleration of the COVID-19 vaccination drive, reforming immigration rules and re-entering the Paris climate accord. All the while, he has adopted a confrontational stance against the Kremlin, which has culminated with the expulsion of 10 Russian diplomats from Washington.
The US effort to reduce points of friction in various global hotspots, which has been a goal of the former administration, has been given a boost with Biden's decision to pull out of Afghanistan by September and dwindle America's military footprint in the Gulf. The winds of change have been clearly felt in this region, especially vis-a-vis Iran, as the pressure- and sanction-based strategy that had been pursued by his predecessor was ditched.
Biden has adopted a more conciliatory tone with Tehran that seeks to establish a formal dialogue with Iran in order to revive the nuclear deal that Trump left in 2018. Biden's approach is modular: He wants a graduated lifting of sanctions in exchange for reduced uranium enrichment, without even discussing the continued Iranian aggression and its missile threat.
World powers convened last week in Vienna for nuclear talks (which included indirect negotiations between US and Iran). Hoping to turn the page, they soon discovered to their frustration that they were not operating in a vacuum. The US-European tango, it turned out, was interrupted by another player, which could complicate their efforts to reinstate the deal.
The new player is the US-Israel special relationship, which is incongruent with Biden's new policy to Iran as
Thus, in order to show that it is still an indirect party to the talks, Israel has reportedly ratcheted up its pressure on Iran by sabotaging its nuclear installation in Natanz and targeting its vessels at sea.
In that sense, even though these alleged actions have taken place against the backdrop of Iranian provocations against Israel, their timing is apparently aimed at sending a clear message: Israel will not tolerate the turning back of the clock to the Obama era in which its positions are ignored, even if that means it has to raise its profile and risk Iranian retaliation that would lead to escalation.
Even though it would be premature to make definitive conclusions based on the past several days and in the wake of Iran's decision to raise its enrichment levels to 60%, it appears that the Israeli message was heard loud and clear in Washington. The White House's decision to unfreeze the arms deal with the United Arab Emirates (including the sale of the F-35 advanced fighter) just two days after Israel's alleged actions in Natanz shows that the US is listening. In fact, the green light for the sale is a confidence-building measure toward Israel, as this is a key part of the Abraham Accords aimed at making Israel and the Sunni Arab states embark on a path to normalization.
This is also designed to show Tehran that despite America's keen effort to join the nuclear pact from 2015 and improve relations with the Islamic republic, it is unwilling to do so by abandoning its key allies in the region and showing the same weakness of the Obama administration.
Time will tell if Obama's former deputy will manage to unshackle himself from the 44th president's ultra-conciliatory approach on Iran. It appears that despite the recent signal to Israel and Iran, Biden is determined to return to a deal that would be based on the 2015 accord, in defiance of Israel's opposition and non-verbal messages.
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