It's been 48 years since the first time a sitting American president landed in Israel for a state visit. That was Richard Nixon, who arrived in Israel in June 1974 in a last-ditch attempt to throw off the chokehold of Watergate by illustrating America's diplomatic achievements in laying the groundwork for a new regional order in the Middle East after the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
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However, this attempt to influence American public opinion while illustrating the strength of the "special relationship" with Israel even in the new circumstances, failed. Two months after his visit in Israel, Nixon was forced to resign in disgrace.
That precedent-setting visit paved the way for new fewer than 10 presidential visits to the Holy Land, which were differentiated by historical, diplomatic, strategic, and political context. Some visits, for example, were locked into a notable Israeli domestic context, such as Bill Clinton's third (out of four) visit in March 1996. Supposedly, the visit was intended to help coalesce an international front against terrorism, but in practice, the president was trying to provide coverage and backing to then-Prime Minister Shimon Peres' election campaign.
Other presidential visits, in contrast, focused on the peace process and the aspiration to settle, or stabilize, various aspects of the Israeli-Arab conflict. One clear example of this was Clinton's first visit in October 1994, the high point of which was his participation as "groomsman" in the signing of the peace treaty between Israel and Jordan. But only a few of the visits reflected the foundations of the special relationship between the two partners. For example, George W. Bush's second visit in May 2008, which aimed to express solidarity with Israel on its 60th Independence Day and the visit by Donald Trump in May 2017, in which he announced his recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and his intention to relocate the US Embassy there.
No matter what the context, no American president has ever set foot on the land of the Bible with his thoughts and attention elsewhere, with Israel serving as a layover on route to his true destination. This time, unlike in the past, this will be the case. Everything have to do with Israel, its well-being and its security problems (first and foremost the threat from Tehran), are already being constantly discussed by experts in the administration and theoretically do not require the president to get involved personally, or come to Israel.
But plans to expand strategic cooperation between the two allies (both bilaterally and as part of a broader regional framework) are already well advanced, and when it comes to the Palestinians the 46th president's visit is unlikely to lead to any diplomatic breakthrough. The same can be said for Israel-Saudi relations, where relations – mainly on security – continue to grow closer behind the scenes, even without direct American involvement or presidential influence.
If this is how things are, without dismissing the president's desire to calm the Israeli leadership about the ramifications of a potential nuclear deal with Iran, there is only one conclusion to be made – that Israel is nothing more than a layover so that Air Force One can refuel on route to Biden's true goal, Saudi Arabia, even though it's acting leader, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman was until recently a persona non grata in Washington.
The main, if not the only, goal of Biden's trip is not Jerusalem, but rather Riyadh and Jeddah. Above all, it is about the White House's undisguised goal of persuading MBS to increase Saudi oil production after crude prices topped $100 a barrel (compared to $40 a barrel when Biden took office). In light of this, the motivating factor behind Biden's visit to Riyadh lies in his desire to check the growing inflation caused by Ukraine was and the oil shortage that resulted from sanctions on Russian oil exports. The spiraling inflation (unlike anything America has seen in 41 years) has directly led to Biden's drop in the polls and the very real possibility that the Republicans could retake both houses of Congress in the midterm elections, a little less than four months from now.
What is clear is that a year and a half after he was sworn in, the president has entirely dropped his original and oppositional policy toward the Saudis (a response to the Khashoggi affair) and decided to make a pilgrimage to Mecca to beg them to open their oil wells so his own people can satisfy their energy demands at prices everyone can afford. The question is what Americans will have to pay for that generosity, mainly in terms of supplying advanced weapons systems to the Saudis. This, of course, is a separate question that should be discussed separately.
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