Those who are privy to the negotiations in Vienna seem to believe a new deal nuclear deal is imminent, as the Iranian Foreign Ministry put it this week. Despite the war in Ukraine, the deal could be announced – and perhaps even inked – in the coming days.
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Nevertheless, it is not too late to prevent world powers from capitulating to Iran's demands. US President Joe Biden could make his mark in a heartbeat by preventing this calamity from befalling the Middle East – something that will, of course, also affect the US.
The United States' allies in the Middle East are watching from the sidelines as the war in Ukraine unfolds. They are watching what is happening in Europe and they are listening to the reports coming out of the nuclear talks in Vienna, and both arenas lead to conclusions that do not paint the US in a very good light and will do little to strengthen its position in our region.
These heads of state will not discuss their conclusions publicly, nor will they comment on these matters. The impact will be felt going forward, in their future foreign policy and in the steps and decisions, they take with respect to their national security.
It is hard to predict what the US-Russia crisis will bring or how the global balance of power will look in its wake. However, with regards to the Middle East, the Iranian issue could provide the US with the opportunity to regain its footing and reinforce its standing with its allies.
The old-new agreement the United States is now looking to will pave a safe path for Iran to get nuclear weapons once the restrictions it details elapse. It has no measures that can force it to sit down for talks on a "longer and stronger" agreement and there is no reason to think Iran would volunteer to do so of its own accord.
The ayatollahs' regime, which sees nuclear weapons as an essential guarantee for ensuring its survival, will be doubly inspired to continue this pursuit as a lesson from the developments in Ukraine. Tehran will maximize what it can achieve through the emerging deal and it will do what it can do to promote this aspiration even if it violates the agreement.
For Washington, the developments in Europe are an opportunity to rethink the deal with Iran and consider its implications.
The nuclear talks have reached the final stretch but even at this late stage in the game, it is not too late! Nothing is agreed upon until everything is agreed upon – this is the way the Iranians themselves act in their attempts to extract last-minute concessions from the United States.
The US can use the Iranian issue to signal a shift in its approach. It still has time to prevent the formation of a diluted version of the 2015 nuclear deal and insist on a "longer and stronger" agreement as the Biden administration has pledged to do.
Some would argue that at this time, it would be better for the US and the West to quickly reach an agreement with Iran they could focus their attention and energy on the crisis in Europe. But even the White House understands that the price a compromise with Iran could exact would be exponentially higher than anything the US and its allies were willing to pay before the war broke out in Ukraine.
Iran wants and needs the deal to come to fruition and is therefore exploiting in full the similar yearning on the part of the US. On the other hand, it understands that the crisis in Europe underscores the implications of a nuclear threat for the US, as well as the question of deterrence in a way that would make it difficult for Tehran to play hardball.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei understands that under the current circumstances, the US could decide to make Iran an example of how it bolsters deterrence. This is an ace the Americans could play in order to push Iran back on the "longer and stronger" path, but this gambit will only be effective if the US shows it is willing to use its leverage in full – including a credible military threat.
As in many similar situations, there are no "good" alternatives when it comes to Iran, but signing a water-down version of the 2015 nuclear deal and affording Tehran concession that would pave its way to becoming a nuclear power may turn out to be the worst alternative of all.
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