Last week's White House meeting between US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy conveyed a clear message to the Kremlin of conviction and continued staunch US support for Ukraine.
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The meeting also sent an important message to the Iranian regime, which is supplying Russia with advanced weaponry in support of its ruthless and relentless war against Ukraine. Iran is due to step up its arms shipments and expand them to include additional weapon systems. During the meeting, Biden announced an important change in US policy, stating that Washington would send advanced Patriot air defense systems to protect Ukraine from the severe, constant barrage of drone, missile and other aerial strikes it is facing.
In a certain sense, Biden's move has turned the spotlight on Israel too, which to date has turned down requests to supply Ukraine with its cutting-edge Iron Dome air defense system. This is a system that during Israel's latest military conflict against Hamas succeeded in attaining an amazing success rate of 90% in intercepting a broad variety of missile and rocket threats. Ukrainian officials have been pushing full steam ahead to obtain these systems, alongside additional advanced Israeli weapon systems and capabilities. Official requests have been launched from Zelenskyy's presidential office, the Foreign Ministry, the Defense Ministry and the Ukraine Embassy in Israel.
Israel's hesitance stems from a number of extremely important reasons. The leading reason is a legitimate concern that the deployment of the Iron Dome in Ukraine will almost certainly lead to the system, and/or its key components, falling into Russian hands, even if the systems' deployment is limited to the Kyiv area.
In such an event, the system will clearly then be sent to Iran for in-depth analysis, as Russia is heavily indebted to Tehran for its current extensive support. Iranian examination of the system might enable the Islamic regime to find methods of contending with it, as it comprises a key component in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran's proxies.
Such technological findings would also undoubtedly be of considerable benefit to Hezbollah, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in their armed conflicts against Israel. This is a risk that the outgoing government made clear it was simply not willing to take, and the incoming government would appear to adopt a similar policy on this matter.
Another reason is the inherent difficulty involved in Israel supplying such systems, as the IDF itself has an ongoing need to acquire additional Iron Dome systems and interceptors. This is a direct result of the continuous expansion of Hezbollah and Hamas' arsenal – despite Israel's successful attempts to prevent or considerably reduce this – Iran's efforts to ship arms to them, and also these organizations' indigenous weapon system production capabilities.
Any significant increase of Israel's production capacity, especially to provide Ukraine with the scope of arms it requires, in view of its geographic deployment, would take an extremely long time. Moreover, the amount of time required for training the Ukrainian forces to operate the Iron Dome would plainly hamper Kyiv's ability to phase the systems into service in the short term. Though it is patently understandable why Ukraine wants this system so badly, it would probably be much easier for the US to train the Ukrainian forces to operate the Patriot batteries.
Lastly, and this reason comes last despite many political commentators portraying it as the main one, Israel does not want to trigger a strong Russian response to such a move. Russia still has an extremely significant presence in Syria, where according to foreign reports, Israel is engaged in constant action to curb the Iranian efforts to establish an extensive military foothold, alongside Tehran's trafficking of advanced weapon systems to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
There are numerous reports indicating that Russia is withdrawing both forces and air defense systems from Syria and redeploying them in Ukraine. Moscow has also ceased to assist in the maintenance of Damascus' air defense systems due to a shortage of spare parts and have even refused to replace some systems that were either badly damaged or destroyed by the Israel Air Force.
Having said that, Russia is not leaving Syria, and its military presence there will apparently continue to be a long-term issue with which Israel will have to contend. Jerusalem is also concerned about reports that Damascus has requested both from Iran and North Korea to supply it with air defense systems in place of Russia. In a certain sense, Biden's decision might help to create a more amenable division of labor with Washington. Following deployment of the Patriot systems, Ukraine will have less of a need for the Iron Dome, and Israel will be able to focus on the aid it has already pledged to provide Kyiv, such as the continued humanitarian aid and the provision of precision intelligence on Iranian activity, as well as on the drones and ballistic missiles that are due to be shipped to Russian from Iran.
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Biden's decision to send Patriot systems essentially forces the US to face similar risks to those of Israel, obviously, though, the fourth reason does not apply in this case. American systems falling into Russian hands would be used by both Moscow and Tehran to weaken their effectiveness on the battlefield and this would have ensuing repercussions for the defense of America's globally deployed forces. Some of the US systems sent to Ukraine have already been captured by the Russians and duly forwarded to Iran. On the other hand, for the US superpower, the desire to bolster the global order it leads might well overcome these concerns, including the American shortage of such systems in its global deployment efforts. Biden and his advisors are perfectly capable of deciding themselves if it is worth taking such risks. The war in Ukraine has forced many countries to identify and redefine their national interests.
Iran's involvement in the war has shed new light on the alliance that poses a strong challenge to the interests of the US, Europe and the majority of like-minded states worldwide. At this stage, it is perfectly evident to almost everybody that the 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA) with Iran is dead, a term Biden recently used himself in relation to it, even if he currently refuses to make an official statement to that effect. Thus, absurdly, officials in the US and Europe continue to look for "creative" ways of resuscitating this agreement that has patently "flat-lined".
A resuscitated agreement would involve alleviating the current sanctions imposed on the Islamic regime in Tehran; thus, actually enriching it at a time when the West should be denying Iran funding in light of its ongoing military support for Russia. Logically; however, the official and final burial of the agreement by the countries that are signatory to it should be the correct approach, alongside activation of the JCPOA "snapback" mechanism triggering the reinstatement of sanctions.
It is imperative to punish the Iranian regime for its blatant breach of human rights, including the killing of women and young girls in its bloody attempts to quell the riots in Iran, while supporting similar killing in Ukraine by supplying sophisticated weapon systems to Russia. Iran should not be allowed to stabilize economically – on the contrary, it is crucial to weaken the regime in any manner possible.
This will help Israel, but also Ukraine and the US, in a combined effort to defeat both Russian and Iranian aggression.
