Ariel Bulshtein

Ariel Bulshtein is a journalist, translator, lecturer and lawyer.

Beware the failed mediator

For mediation to be successful, a mediator needs tangible means of persuasion, namely carrots, and sticks, as he is useless without them. Israel cannot threaten Russia and Ukraine with a stick, nor can it offer them carrots.

 

Prime minister-designate flash visit to Moscow on Saturday has been one of the biggest surprises of the 10-day war in Ukraine. Prior to the Feb. 24 invasion, the Kremlin was teeming with high-profile visitors as Western leaders tried to dissuade Russian President Vladimir Putin from going through with the move. When it became clear that their efforts had failed, Putin was sentenced to political isolation, which was broken by his meeting with the Israeli prime minister.

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Bennett's trip relied on the achievements of his predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu. That special status upgraded Israel's diplomatic prestige, and more importantly, allowed it to neutralize both security and political risks. However, it is doubtful that Israel can prove an effective mediator between Moscow and Kyiv at this time.

For mediation to be successful, the mediator needs tangible means of persuasion, namely carrots and sticks. Without them, the mediator is no more than a conversationalist, and his suggestions are doomed to be rejected by both parties. Israel has no real leverage of influence over Russia and Ukraine, it cannot threaten them with sticks nor can it offer them carrots. Therefore, its chances of stopping the war are nil.

It would not hurt to remind those who dream of being peacemakers a failed mediator earns only the resentment of both sides, which blame him for the continued sacrifice and suffering.

Still, we must also remember that Bennett's Russian excursion came as pressure on him to take a clearer stand on the war grows, to say nothing of the mounting pressure to do something before the West inks another nuclear deal with Iran.

In this context, it is precisely the fact that Bennett volunteered to act as a mediator that exempts him from having to choose a side, as mediators are expected to remain impartial and ambiguous as to their opinion about who is in the right and who is in the wrong.

As far as Israelis are concerned, Bennett's trip to Russia can have only one reason: preventing the nuclear deal with Iran.

Sympathy to the horrific situation in Ukraine aside, the West's emerging capitulation to Tehran's morbid obsession with becoming a nuclear power will have far more dangerous ramifications and if Bennett's visit to Moscow can prevent that, then he has done the right thing.

However, if it turns out the Israeli prime minister wasted time on futile mediation efforts rather than focusing on stopping Iran, these ill-conceived priorities could cost Israel dearly.

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