Two rockets were fired from Gaza at southern and central Israel on Sunday. This may have been a small-scale incident compared to many other events in the Gaza Strip and the greater Middle East, but it may foretell the near future in terms of the security challenges Israel faces.
Hamas, the terrorist group that rules the Gaza Strip, immediately claimed that the fire was accidental – the result of a malfunction triggered by Sunday's stormy weather. But was that really the case?
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Hamas used a similar excuse in late October 2019, when a rocket was fired at Beersheba on a particularly stormy night. The Islamist terrorist group cited "a technical failure" caused by the heavy rainfall, which affected one of its armed launching pads.
A coincidence of this nature is hard to believe to begin with, and I, for one, certainly do not believe that lightning strikes the same place twice. It seems that there is more to this incident than meets the eye and therefore one must ask, what can this ostensibly sporadic incident teach us about what is to come?
First, the existence of locked and loaded rocket launching systems that are ready to engage at any moment raises serious questions about Hamas' abilities to hit the Israeli home front at will.
Second, if we look closely we will find that the rockets were fired on the first anniversary of the assassination of Islamic Jihad strongman Bahaa Abu al-Ata, and as much as the Palestinian terrorist groups seek to deny it, one has to wonder whether this was some sort of retaliation on their part.
A third point is that these were mid- and long-range rockets that reached the southern city of Ashdod and Bat Yam, in central Israel. The message Hamas sent here is clear: our projectiles can reach central Israel if we want them to. The greater Tel Aviv area is a major target for Hamas and the other terrorist groups in Gaza and none of them have ever bothered to deny it.
Next, one has to wonder if this was also a message to the Americans, as the shooting took place mere days after the US presidential election results and the emergence of Democratic hopeful Joe Biden as the winner.
Did Gaza's rulers attempt to send a clear and firm message to the Americans that they would be wise to change the strategies adopted by the Trump administration vis-à-vis the Palestinians – and sooner rather than later? Could this have been a veiled threat that the Palestinians will not hesitate to provoke hostilities unless Washington resumes the support lent to them?
Lastly, one has to wonder if this was also a message to Qatar in the wake of the announcement that it plans to cut its aid to Gaza. Doha has all but been footing the bill – to the tune of billions of dollars – for the tenuous ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and it seems the Qataris have had enough. Hamas, for its part, is unlikely to take "no" for an answer.
The implications here are clear and Israel has to state and enforce red lines that Hamas simply cannot be allowed to cross. For every night during which Israelis in the greater Tel Aviv area lose sleep over rocket fire, the residents of Rafah should lose sleep for three nights.
The Home Front Command, however, must also investigate the failures in the air raid siren systems in Bat Yam and Ashdod. Was this, too, a result of the stormy weather, which may have interrupted the system's radars?
Israel must prepare, without delay, for a different reality in the Middle East, for escalating tensions in the southern sector, and for attempts by various adversaries, to provoke another intifada.
Israel's enemies look at the political chaos plaguing it and see an opportunity in the impending change in the American administration – an opportunity they have no intention of missing. The sooner Israel revises its strategy the better. There is no room for delays or hesitations.
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