The leader of the world's largest democracy, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is set to embark on a two-day visit to the Kremlin. During his stay, he will engage in discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin on various issues, including the escalating global tensions. The agenda includes signing a logistics agreement, expanding trade relations, deliberating on oil payment mechanisms, and initiating the Chennai-Vladivostok Maritime Corridor. India, balancing strategic and technological interests with the West against strategic and economic interests in the East, arrives in Moscow with the mission to leverage its international standing and prevent the strengthening of Sino-Russian ties.
Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, India faced severe criticism for its refusal to openly condemn Moscow. Despite attempts to soften the blow with neutral rhetoric, it appears that on the Ukraine issue, India chose not the West, but once again itself – and in this specific case, Russia.
In a series of UN Security Council votes against Moscow's actions, India chose to abstain. In public statements, it offered vague references to the importance of dialogue and the merits of diplomacy, calling for the preservation of territorial integrity without directly naming Russia.
In the exclusive club of Russia's allies, which includes Iran, China, and North Korea, India also finds a place. New Delhi and Moscow have enjoyed close ties since the 1950s, which were accelerated following the signing of the "Indo-Soviet Friendship Treaty" in 1971 at the height of the Cold War. With the collapse of the USSR, relations were redefined, but security and strategic ties, along with a positive image that even the great America envies, remain intact. The affinity for Moscow in New Delhi's policy-making corridors and among the general public may explain the hangover India has been experiencing for the past two years.
Despite security trade being the cornerstone of relations between the two nations, in recent years India, the world's largest arms importer, has sought to diversify its defense procurement arsenal. This move has created opportunities for Western companies, particularly American, French, and Israeli firms. Over the past two decades, India has spent about $60 billion on Russian weaponry, but imports have steadily declined, and the Ukraine war has accelerated this trend. The conflict in Ukraine has disrupted Russia's ability to supply critical spare parts for systems and equipment used by the Indian military and delayed the implementation of the S-400 air defense system, which India purchased in 2018 for $5 billion. The focus on Ukraine, Western sanctions, concerns about Russian equipment quality, the desire to develop a strong domestic industry, and the need to appease America have played significant roles in changing the equation.
Nevertheless, New Delhi has numerous interests in keeping Moscow close. The strengthening of Russia-China relations since 2014 is a source of concern for Indians, as is the defense agreement between Russia and North Korea. The outcome of Putin's recent visit to North Korea has caused discomfort in Delhi, primarily due to the ongoing military cooperation between North Korea and Pakistan.
India is also one of the biggest beneficiaries of the war in Ukraine. Western sanctions on Russia have shifted Russian exports eastward, and today about 90% of Russian oil exports are sold to China and India – the former importing about 50% and the latter 40%. Private oil companies have minimized their domestic fuel sales to the required minimum, hiked prices, sold oil in international markets, and thus inadvertently contributed to the rise in global oil prices. These moves have put India at the center of global criticism and added a less flattering characteristic to its image – a country providing billions to the Kremlin and aiding the Russian war machine. Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar stated that India, first duty is to help its own people. During the current visit, the Modi administration is expected to request a further discount on the price of a barrel of "black gold."
The visit provides an opportunity for both countries to calibrate their relationship and strengthen their strategic partnership while navigating geopolitical complexities.
