Even though the European Union loves to present the Iran nuclear deal as a diplomatic success on its part and as a testament to its ability to play a central role in the international arena, few European officials believe signing the deal with Tehran would have been possible without the massive pressure applied by the Obama administration – primarily by then-Secretary of State John Kerry – to strike a deal with the Iranians at all costs.
It was America's insistence at the time that forced its Westerns partners – chief of among them the U.K. and France – to moderate their stance and place their faith in such an immensely shoddy deal. Germany, which has close ties and shares vast interests with Iran – looked on from the side – and the moment it saw the Americans amplify pressure to sign the deal they enlisted to Washington's aid.
The architects of the nuclear deal argued it would allow Iran to prove its peaceful intentions and reintegrate with the family of nations. Almost two and a half years have passed since the day the deal was signed and while the Iranians have perhaps fulfilled their obligations to minimize the scope of their nuclear program, they have also shown the world their unbridled aspiration for Iranian-Shiite hegemony in the Middle East by continuing to support terrorist organizations.
As for Washington, a new president is in the White House, and he clearly sees the disadvantages of this "bad" deal, in his words, with the Iranians. Trump has declared his intention to work toward amending the deal. He also set a timeframe for this purpose: six months, until the next deadline for deciding whether to reimpose sanctions, which were lifted by his predecessor, against the Iranian regime.
In European capitals, officials enjoy belittling and showing contempt for Trump, to view him as the "bad boy" of the West. But the Europeans cannot ignore Washington's clout or the consequences of cutting the Americans out of the nuclear deal. If they want to salvage the little they have achieved insofar as freezing Iran's nuclear program on a limited basis, they must take Trump's threats to veto the deal into account and examine where they can help fill the deal's many holes.
The Europeans also cannot blame Trump for Iran's belligerence, which is incessant: It has not stopped developing its ballistic missile program – which it will eventually be able to use to carry nuclear warheads great distances, even threatening European capitals; it is aggressively attempting to expand its sphere of influence in the Middle East – Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, Gulf states; and there is always the grave concern over what Iran intends to do once the nuclear deal expires, in around 7.5 years.
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson noted this week a greater understanding in Europe's most important capitals – London, Paris and Berlin – about Iran's behavior and "holes" in the nuclear deal that require fixing. To this end, an American-European task force has been created to explore the feasibility of a collateral agreement to the Vienna deal, not only to address the West's concerns and to appease the American administration but to avoid having to bury the Vienna deal altogether. Indeed, according to assessments, a U.S. withdrawal from the deal will almost assuredly lead Iran to nullify its obligations and recommence nuclear activities.
The Europeans find themselves between an American rock and an Iranian hard place. Their ability to repair the damage caused by a messianic and obsessive American administration will now be put to the wwww.
