Until Tuesday's terrorist attack in Beersheba, the prevalent assumption in Israel was that while the month of Ramadan would be volatile, the country could make it through safely. It appeared that the elements holding the street in check were much stronger than the elements stirring it up, and would allow the Muslim, Jewish, and Christian holidays this April to coincide with a repeat of last year's events, which started in Jerusalem and led to a wide-scale operation in the Gaza Strip.
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That assessment will obviously be reevaluated over the next few days. Terrorist attacks, especially ones that kill multiple Israelis, have a dynamic of their own. Terrorist organizations use them to inspire others to take similar action, and there are also plenty of lone copycats. None of these are ever short of reasons for their actions, but studies of terrorism teach us that "successes" are a consistent catalyst for additional attacks, just like thwarting attacks holds them in check.
This potential exists despite the fact that the terrorist in Beersheba had no ties to the Palestinian struggle. He spent time in prison for activity involving the Islamic State, and since he was released, he appeared to have moderated his views and stopped doing anything illegal. Now security forces will have to look into whether or not he was acting secretly, off the radar of the Shin Bet security agency, which was supposed to have kept tabs on him, or whether some event in the past few days motivated him to carry out his murderous terrorist spree.
Despite the attack, if nothing major changes, Israel intends to allow business to go on as usual this coming month, with as few restrictions as possible. Arab Israelis and in east Jerusalem will be able to visit the Temple Mount (as will Palestinians from the West Bank over a certain age), and Jews and Christians will also be able to visit the city to celebrate Passover and Easter.
This will be permitted despite the sensitivity entailed in how closely several key dates fall this year. The first is the Palestinians' Land Day, which is marked on March 30, which will be followed by Ramadan, which begins on April 2. In mid-April, during Passover [which begins on the eve of April 15], Palestinians will mark Prisoner's Day on April 17. Then comes Laylat Al-Qadr, on April 27, and Eid al-Fitr – the final day of Ramadan – on May 3, which happens to fall the day before Israel's Memorial Day for Fallen Soldiers and Victims of Terrorism and Independence Day.
Each of these dates could potentially set off an escalation, especially when there are plenty of background actors – primarily Hamas – who are working 24/7 to wreak havoc. Hamas does not want things to deteriorate to the point of another operation in Gaza, but cannot stop its instinct to launch terrorist actions, and also has no interest in retreated from the narrative it established last year that it is "defending Jerusalem."
Unlike Hamas, the Palestinian Authority does not want to see terrorism. Every attack that is carried out, certainly the ones inspired by Hamas, eats away at Palestinian public support for the PA while increasing support for Hamas as an alternative. Still, the PA won't be able to oppose any escalation that happens and will have to align with the radicals, even if behind the scenes it is working to restore calm.
If things do escalate, the PA will have plenty of partners in restoring order. Jordan and Egypt, and to a lesser extent the Emirates and Qatar, and of course the US, are deeply involved in the Palestinian arena and the issue was raised at this week's tripartite summit in Sharm e-Sheikh.
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Improved economic conditions in the West Bank and east Jerusalem will also restrain much of the public from open terrorist activity, which is why Israel is keeping a close eye on the economic fallout of the war in Ukraine and its effects on the Palestinian public. The expected rise in prices could lead to protests, which will be directed at the PA but also possibly against Israel.
East Jerusalem also appears less tense than it was a year ago. Sheikh Jarrah is not a hotspot at this time, and there doesn't seem to be another obvious cause for escalation on the horizon. The main concern is that some local incident could get out of control and lead to a large number of wounded. To prevent that, Israel plans to increase the security forces deployed in the city and, insofar as it can, keep Muslims and Jews apart to contain any incidents and bring any that erupt to a quick end.
The challenge for Israel will be to prevent incitement from lighting up the street. Apart from the diplomatic, intelligence, and operational efforts, this will require extensive activity on social media to deter as well as prevent possible terrorist actions. This activity is already ongoing, and has helped thwart thousands of terrorist attacks in the past few years, but cannot achieve 100% success – as the eight attacks since the beginning of March have proven.
Meanwhile, ever since Tuesday's attack, much has been written about the lack of governability in the Negev and about how loyal the Bedouin are to the country. But it appears that the two things have been conflated. The lack of governability in the Negev is both troubling and dangerous, but it mainly involved criminality, and very little ethno-religious terrorism. The weapons smuggling across the Egyptian border, which is mainly perpetrated by the Bedouin, can be linked to future terrorist attacks, but with a few notable exceptions, there is no clear link.
Still, Israel must get the Negev, and the North, in order. The Beersheba attack provided an excellent opportunity to take action, enlist resources and personnel, to remove obstacles and make decisions, and allow the government to implement a plan designed to restore control of 100% of Israel's territory.
Residents and heads of local councils in the Negev have been crying for help for years, but until now, have been left on their own. For most Israelis, what takes place on the roads of the south is almost international news, and doesn't affect them. The Beersheba attack should be a wake-up call. Anyone who thinks that the anarchy in the Negev will stay in the Negev is living in a dream, and will wake up to the same anarchy in the heart of Tel Aviv.
