In recent days, there has been reports that it is now possible for Turkish-Israeli relations to improve for there has been a change of heart in Ankara. The question remains, can we as Israelis honestly believe this? After all, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wrote a play titled Mas-Kom-Ya in his youth, which purported to expose a Freemason, Communist and Jewish conspiracy. This was long before the Mavi Marmara affair.
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As Turkish journalist Burak Bekdil recently wrote in the Gatestone Institute, "It would be childish to believe that the man whose political formation was based on a militant expanse of anti-Zionism as raison d'être was not anti-Israeli but had merely been under the influence of advisors who no longer hold sway. Erdogan is anti-Israeli today as he was 40, 30, 20, and 10 years ago."
Turkish journalist Rafael Sadi concurred that Turkey is not really interested in having a better relationship with Israel: "They are just doing a cheap theatrical display for Biden and Biden is not so stupid as to buy it.
Nevertheless, Turkey may need Israel to have a better relationship with the US and to influence Europe's hydrocarbon deals. However, Israel will not trust Erdogan, after he repeatedly used the anti-Israel card to stay in power."
Nevertheless, we are now witnessing historic events that would have been impossible to believe just four years ago. Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir was overthrown and now Sudan is set to make peace with Israel, after Sudan signed an accord with the US. This is the same country where the Khartoum Declaration was made, which called for "no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel and no negotiations with Israel."
Four other countries, Bhutan, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, all made peace without Israel granting any territorial concessions to the Palestinians in return, a dream that we thought was impossible until recently. So, as we live in the age of the impossible becoming possible, perhaps Erdogan can also come to his senses and realize the benefits of being on good terms with Israel, even if has ulterior motives for doing so.
As MK Ayoob Kara declared in a recent interview, "Erdogan wants a strong Turkish economy and the trade between Israel and Turkey is extraordinarily strong for many years now. Yet at the same time, Erdogan wants to be the sultan of the East. So, Erdogan was trying to find the right balance between these two. He wanted to be more popular in the Muslim world, for he felt that it would make him more powerful in Turkey. The fact that the EU rejected Turkey only made Erdogan more extremist. This was the situation till now.
"But now, I think that he understands that being anti-Israel is not good for Turkey," MK Kara noted. "It is not good for him to be against Israel, when Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the other Sunni states are getting closer to Israel. Since Turkey is a Sunni state, he now understands that he needs Israel more than Iran. Because of that, he changed his position."
Turkish security analyst Bartu Eken concurred: "Turkey is looking for new allies. Hamas is getting closer to Iran, while limiting its relationship with Turkey. Although Turkey does not view Iran to be an enemy, they cannot consider them to be a friend either."
After Israel, Turkey and Azerbaijan were on the same side during the Second Karabakh War, Eken believes that this creates great potential for improved Turkish-Israeli relations: "There are rumors of a shadow alliance between the three countries on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue."
Meanwhile, Iran supported the opposite side in this war, thus driving a further wedge in Turkish-Iranian relations, even though both Iran and Turkey remain united in their suppression of the Kurds.
According to Eken, "The YPG borders Turkey. There are limited relations with Iraq. There is enmity with the Assad regime. There is limited proximity with Northern Iraq. There is enmity with Armenia. Therefore, if Biden's more hawkish policies can be expected to follow, Turkey will need a new friend." Eken believes that it is possible that Israel can be this friend.
"I had so many meetings with the Turks to try to convince them to stop the extremism and to cooperate with Israel," Kara declared.
"Many people in Israel did not like that I did this, but I think it was the right step. It is better to be clever than to be right. We do not need millions of Turks to be against us. Who knows how the relationship can change? I was the only one who supported the agreement with the Turks after the Flotilla. People now say that I was right in my steps. I think if Iran continues to lose and of course, if Europe and the US more and more do actions against Iran, Erdogan is just going to be more friendly for Israel and Europe."
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